Percent Releases 2026 Private Credit Outlook: Growth Continues as Scrutiny Intensifies

NEW YORK, Jan. 15, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Percent, the platform providing a modern private credit marketplace, today released its 2026 Private Credit Outlook, an annual report examining the macro backdrop for private credit and the trends expected to shape the market in 2026.

Drawing on activity across Percent's primary and secondary markets following a volatile 2025, the outlook suggests private credit is entering a more demanding phase—one where diversification and income-oriented alternatives matter even more. Industry estimates found the size of private credit at the start of 2025 was $3 trillion, compared to about $2 trillion in 2020, and it is estimated to grow to approximately $5 trillion by 2029. Opportunity remains strong, but investors are applying tighter scrutiny to underwriting, reporting quality, and repeatable risk management.

"Private credit is still expanding, but the market is becoming less forgiving," said Nelson Chu, Founder and CEO of Percent. "In 2026, we expect capital to flow to managers and platforms with strong structuring and transparent data. That means frequent reporting and tighter risk and operational oversight."

"The next wave of growth will be defined by discipline, not hype," said Prath Reddy, CFA, President of Percent. "Investors are getting more specific about what they want: seniority, collateral, shorter-duration cash flows, and the ability to validate performance in real time."

The 2026 Private Credit Outlook highlights several themes expected to influence the market in the year ahead, including:

• More supply, more negotiating power for investors: Beyond AI, a looming maturity wall and a likely pickup in M&A activity could expand private credit deal flow, improving spreads and loan terms as investor choice broadens.
• Defaults remain contained despite loud 2025 headlines: While several high-profile bankruptcies drew attention in 2025, the report attributes much of that activity to fraud-related situations and notes it has not, so far, translated into a broad-based rise in default rates.
• The key risk to watch – a widening split in the U.S. consumer: Percent flags increasing divergence between prime and subprime borrowers and expects delinquencies to rise among lenders concentrated in subprime and near-prime cohorts.
• AI infrastructure financing adds meaningful new issuance: Surging demand for AI data centers and power capacity is expected to drive significant issuance across public and private debt markets, potentially increasing supply and putting upward pressure on spreads.
• New systemic risk – "algorithmic crowding" and correlated shocks: As more market participants rely on similar AI models, shared blind spots can synchronize decision-making and amplify correlated outcomes during periods of stress.
• BaaS and tokenization face a reality check: Percent expects tighter scrutiny for models under regulatory and economic pressure, with capital shifting toward solutions that can prove measurable operational impact—and back it up with consistent reporting.

The report comes on the heels of a record year for Percent. By year-end 2025, Percent surpassed $350 million in AUM, on the back of $532.4 million in issuance volume, had 140+ borrower programs onboarded, 20+ managers, and 50,000+ investor sign-ups since inception, and recorded 27 consecutive months of net AUM growth. Percent also saw asset-based securities representing over 84% of its issuance volume, a trend the company expects to continue in 2026.

To check out Percent's full 2026 Private Credit Outlook, please visit: http://percent.com/resources/2026-private-credit-outlook

About Percent

Percent is unlocking private credit by enabling efficient access, liquidity and data for all market participants. Through its digital primary issuance and secondary markets platform, Percent provides all deal counterparties with a unified environment to source, structure, distribute, service and trade private credit assets. Founded in 2018, Percent is setting the market standard for a historically fragmented asset class, supporting billions in primary and secondary transaction volume in a multi-trillion-dollar private credit industry. For additional information, please visit www.percent.com.

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SOURCE Percent