IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Continues to Rise in March

Presidential Leadership Index takes a dip,

While the National Outlook Index and Financial Related Stress Index improve

LOS ANGELES--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, a leading national poll on consumer confidence, increased for the second consecutive month. Its March reading of 46.9 improved by 4.0% over February’s reading of 45.1. Though the index remains in negative territory for the 19th month, this month’s reading is now the index’s highest since December 2021 (48.4). A reading above 50.0 signals optimism and below 50.0 indicates pessimism on IBD/TIPP indexes.

The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has established a strong track record of foreshadowing the confidence indicators issued later each month by the University of Michigan and The Conference Board.

For the latest index, IBD/TIPP surveyed 1,370 adults March 1-3. The poll was conducted online using TechnoMetrica’s network of panels to provide the sample. IBD/TIPP also surveyed respondents on key political issues for the separate Presidential Leadership Index and National Outlook Index, as well as the Financial Related Stress Index.

After two months of improvement, the Presidential Leadership Index dipped by 1.8%. The March index reading of 49.1 returned to negative territory after spending February at a neutral 50.0. Declining by 3.3%, the Favorability component was the only component to remain in positive territory with a reading of 50.5, while Leadership was the only component to improve with a reading of 47.1 – a 1.9% change over February’s reading of 46.2.

The National Outlook Index rose in March for the fourth consecutive month. Its reading of 46.1 showed a 2.2% change over February’s 45.1 to hit the index’s highest mark since December 2021 (47.0). Five of six index components increased. Quality of Life continued to hold the only positive reading at 54.6, up from 52.7 last month, while Standing in the World increased the most at 5.5% improvement with a reading of 44.5.

The Financial Related Stress Index showed a very slight decrease in stress. The March index moved from last month’s 65.8 to 65.6, a 0.3% change. On this index, a reading over 50.0 equals more financial stress while a reading below 50.0 indicates consumers feel less stress. The index was last below 50.0 prior to the pandemic in February 2020 (48.1).

“Another month on the upswing indicates that consumers are starting to feel more comfortable with the market and their financial situation overall,” said Ed Carson, IBD's news editor. “There has been a notable increase in the number of people who believe the economy is improving, as well as those who find that jobs are keeping pace with inflation. While the numbers aren’t yet stable, March is the second consecutive month where we’re seeing improvements.”

The flagship IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has three key components. In March, all three increased.

• The Six-Month Economic Outlook, a measure of how consumers feel about the economy’s prospects in the next six months, rose another 4.8%, up from February’s 39.7 to March’s 41.6.
• The Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel about their own finances in the next six months, remained in positive territory, climbing 4.6%. The percentage change moved February’s reading of 52.6 to 55.0. This is its highest mark since September 2021 when the reading also reached 55.0.
• Confidence in Federal Economic Policies, a proprietary IBD/TIPP measure of views on how government economic policies are working, increased from 43.1 to 44.2, a 2.6% change.

Economic Optimism Index Breakdown

This month, eight of 21 demographic groups — such as age, income, race and party preference — that IBD/TIPP tracks were above 50.0, in positive territory, on the Economic Optimism Index. That’s vs. six in February and three in the prior three months. Twelve groups rose vs. 13 in February, eight in January, 19 in December and nine in November.

For the Six-Month Economic Outlook component, seven of the 21 groups that IBD/TIPP tracks scored in optimistic territory, vs. four in February, zero in January and just one in December and November. Optimism over the economy’s six-month outlook rose for 11 groups vs. 13 in February, nine in January and 11 groups in November and December.

For the Personal Financial component, 12 groups IBD/TIPP tracks were in optimistic territory vs. 10 in the prior two months, nine in December and seven in November. Sixteen groups rose vs.15 in February, nine in January, 15 in December and 12 in November.

For the Federal Policies component, eight of the 21 demographic groups tracked were above 50.0 vs. four in February, three in January, two in December and three in November. Ten groups rose vs. 14 in February, 11 in January, 14 in December and four in November.

ABOUT THE IBD©/TIPP POLL

The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index is the earliest take on consumer confidence each month and predicts with good reliability monthly changes in sentiment in well-known polls by The Conference Board and the University of Michigan. The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index is based on a survey of about 1,300 adults conducted using a network of online panels. The national poll is generally conducted in the first week of the month.

For more information, go to https://tippinsights.com. To license the IBD/TIPP Poll, please email [email protected].

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View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230307005512/en/

Carmen Mantalas
[email protected]

Source: Investor’s Business Daily

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