Fitch Rates Metropolitan Trans Auth (NY) Trans Rev Bonds 'A'

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Fitch Ratings has assigned an 'A' rating to the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA), New York's approximately $400 million transportation revenue bonds, series 2015D. The 2015D bonds are expected to consist of subseries 2015D-1 (fixed rate) and subseries 2015D-2 (mandatory tender bonds). Actual par amounts for each subseries will be determined closer to pricing and market conditions.

The Rating Outlook is Stable.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

The 'A' rating reflects the gross lien on a diverse stream of pledged revenues, the essentiality of the MTA's transit network to the economy of the New York region, and the demonstrated ability of the MTA to produce near-term solutions for its operating and capital needs. The rating also reflects the need to generate sufficient cash to adequately cover operations of the system despite high debt service coverage ratios (DSCRs).

Strategic Importance: The MTA transportation network is essential to the economy of the New York region, with New York City Transit carrying an average of 8.14 million daily subway and bus riders and Metro-North Railroad and Long Island Rail Road (LIRR) carrying another 588,000 daily commuter rail passengers. While an independent authority, the MTA has received significant support from the state of New York in the form of additional tax sources aimed at closing projected operating budget gaps and addressing capital needs.

Highly Constrained Financial Operations: Despite high DSCRs from gross pledged revenues, the MTA's financial position is constrained given its extremely large operating profile and high fixed costs, including significant retiree pension benefits. In addition, some of the MTA's operating subsidies are vulnerable to economic conditions. While the MTA is required to provide a balanced current year budget, some tools available to meet a balanced budget, such as service reductions and fare increases, are politically unpopular.

Solid Security Pledge: The bonds are secured by a gross lien on a diverse stream of pledged operating revenues consisting of transit and commuter fares and excess bridge tolls and non-operating revenues consisting of various regional taxes.

Extremely Large Capital Needs: While the MTA's 2015-2019 proposed $29 billion Capital Program (Transit and Commuter Programs) was vetoed by the Capital Programs Review Board (CPRB), the proposed Transit and Commuter Capital Program assumes around $3.9 billion in MTA related debt. The proposed plan has a roughly $15.2 billion gap in funding which is expected to be funded through a combination of additional federal, state and/or local resources or potentially additional MTA debt. The proposed TBTA Capital Program (not subject to CPRB approval) is estimated to be $3.1 billion with approximately $2.3 billion funded from TBTA bonds. The MTA has historically faced the constant challenge of delicately balancing the large rehabilitation needs of the system and expansion projects while covering operating expenses and maintaining financial flexibility.

Growing Annual Debt Burden: The MTA's capacity to continue to leverage resources to fund expansion projects while meeting renewal and replacement needs may be limited in the future if projected financial performance or additional operating subsidies do not come to fruition.

Peer Comparison: Given the size and breadth of the MTA's network of transportation assets, there is no direct comparison for the entity.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Negative: Inability by the MTA to achieve future projected operating efficiencies and implement other key elements of the cost reduction initiatives and/or maintain an ongoing state of good repair and other elements of the capital program;

Negative: Significant cost overruns or delays in the capital program's mega-projects that lead to additional borrowing or deferral of core capital projects;

Negative: Receipts in dedicated tax subsidies that are measurably below forecast levels could pressure the MTA's financial flexibility.

Positive: Given small near-term operating surpluses but medium-term projected deficits positive rating movement is unlikely in the near term.

SUMMARY OF CREDIT

The series 2015D bonds are being issued to refund the remaining portion of the MTA's outstanding transportation revenue bonds, series 2005A, 2005B and 2005F. The refunding is a current refunding with the refunded bonds callable on Nov. 15, 2015.

For additional information on the MTA and details related to the MTA's short-term rating, see Fitch's press release 'Fitch Rates Metropolitan Trans Auth (NY) Transportation Rev BANs 'F1' dated June 09, 2015 and for more information on the MTA's long-term credit profile see 'Fitch Rates Metro Transportation Auth (NY) Railroad Rehabilitation Infrastructure Financing Loan 'A''' dated May 5, available at www.fitchratings.com

Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com

Applicable Criteria

Rating Criteria for Infrastructure and Project Finance (pub. 12 Jul 2012)

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=682867

Tax-Supported Rating Criteria (pub. 14 Aug 2012)

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=686015

Additional Disclosures

Solicitation Status

https://www.fitchratings.com/gws/en/disclosure/solicitation?pr_id=989439

Endorsement Policy

https://www.fitchratings.com/jsp/creditdesk/PolicyRegulation.faces?context=2&detail=31

ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: HTTP://FITCHRATINGS.COM/UNDERSTANDINGCREDITRATINGS. IN ADDITION, RATING DEFINITIONS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE AGENCY'S PUBLIC WEBSITE 'WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM'. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA AND METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH'S CODE OF CONDUCT, CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL, COMPLIANCE AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE 'CODE OF CONDUCT' SECTION OF THIS SITE. FITCH MAY HAVE PROVIDED ANOTHER PERMISSIBLE SERVICE TO THE RATED ENTITY OR ITS RELATED THIRD PARTIES. DETAILS OF THIS SERVICE FOR RATINGS FOR WHICH THE LEAD ANALYST IS BASED IN AN EU-REGISTERED ENTITY CAN BE FOUND ON THE ENTITY SUMMARY PAGE FOR THIS ISSUER ON THE FITCH WEBSITE.

View source version on businesswire.com: http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20150813006169/en/

Fitch Ratings
Primary Analyst
Chad Lewis
Senior Director
+1-212-908-0886
Fitch Ratings, Inc.
33 Whitehall St.
New York, NY 10004
or
Secondary Analyst
Tanya Langman
Director
+1-212-908-0716
or
Committee Chairperson
Glaucia Calp
Senior Director
+57-1-326-9999
or
Media Relations:
Alyssa Castelli, New York, +1 212-908-0540
Email: [email protected]

Source: Fitch Ratings

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