Fitch Affirms Nelnet 2012-6; Outlook Stable

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Fitch Ratings has affirmed the ratings on the following classes of Nelnet Student Loan Trust 2012-6:

--Class A at 'AAAsf'; Rating Outlook Stable;

--Class B at 'AAsf'; Rating Outlook Stable.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

U.S. Sovereign Risk: The trust collateral comprises Federal Family Education Loan Program (FFELP) loans, 20% of which are rehab loans, with guaranties provided by eligible guarantors and reinsurance provided by the U.S. Department of Education (ED) for at least 97% of principal and accrued interest. The U.S. sovereign rating is currently 'AAA'/Stable Outlook.

Collateral Performance: Fitch assumes a base case default rate of 20.25% and a 56.75% default rate under the 'AAA' credit stress scenario. The claim reject rate is assumed to be 0.25% for the base case and 2.0% for the 'AAAsf' case. Fitch applies the standard default timing curve in its credit stress cash flow analysis. Trailing twelve month average constant default rate, utilized in the maturity stresses, is 5.7%. Trailing twelve month levels of deferment, forbearance, Income-based repayment (before adjustment) and constant prepayment rate (voluntary and involuntary) are 8.1%, 11.1%, 9.8% and 11.5% respectively, which are used as the starting point in cash flow modeling. Subsequent declines or increases are modeled as per criteria. The borrower benefit is assumed to be approximately 0.11% based on information provided by the sponsor.

Basis and Interest Rate Risk: Fitch applies its standard basis and interest rate stresses to this transaction as per criteria.

Payment Structure: Credit enhancement is provided by overcollateralization, excess spread and, for the class A notes, subordination. As of July 2016, total and senior effective parity ratios (with include the reserve account), respectively, are 101.01% (1.00% CE) and 105.16% (4.91% CE). Liquidity support is provided by a reserve account sized at the greater of 0.65% of the principal balance of the notes outstanding, and 0.10% of the initial note balance. Excess cash is currently being released as the Specified Overcollateralization amount of the greater of 1.00% of the adjusted pool balance and $2 million is being maintained.

Maturity Risk: Fitch's SLABS cash flow model indicates that the notes are paid in full on or prior to the legal final maturity dates under the commensurate rating scenario.

Operational Capabilities: Day-to-day servicing is provided by Nelnet, Inc, Xerox Education Services Inc, Pennsylvania Higher Education Assistance Agency, and Great Lakes Educational Loan Services, Inc. Fitch believes all four to be acceptable servicers of FFELP student loans.

Criteria Application

For transactions in surveillance, Fitch will treat certain assets such as claims filed as short-term assets in its cash flow analysis. Given that Fitch's current criteria is silent on the treatment of such assets, this treatment is considered a criteria variation. Fitch does not believe such variation has a measurable impact upon the ratings assigned.

Under the 'Counterparty Criteria for Structured Finance and Covered Bonds', dated Sept. 1, 2016, Fitch looks to its own ratings in analyzing counterparty risk and assessing a counterparty's creditworthiness. The definition of permitted investments for this deal allows for the possibility of using investments not rated by Fitch, which represents a criteria variation. Since the only available funds to invest are those held in the Collection Account, and the funds can only be invested for a short duration given the payment frequency of the notes, Fitch does not believe such variation has a measurable impact upon the ratings assigned.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Since the FFELP student loan ABS relies on the U.S. government to reimburse defaults, 'AAAsf' FFELP ABS ratings will likely move in tandem with the 'AAA' U.S. sovereign rating. Aside from the U.S. sovereign rating, defaults, basis risk, and loan extension risk account for the majority of the risk embedded in FFELP student loan transactions. Additional defaults, basis shock beyond Fitch's published stresses, lower than expected payment speed, and other factors could result in future downgrades. Likewise, a build-up of CE driven by positive excess spread given favorable basis factor conditions could lead to future upgrades.

USE OF THIRD-PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G-10

No third party due diligence was provided or reviewed in relation to this rating action.

REPRESENTATIONS, WARRANTIES AND ENFORCEMENT MECHANISMS

A description of the transaction's representations, warranties and enforcement mechanisms (RW&Es) that are disclosed in the offering document and which relate to the underlying asset pool is available by accessing the appendix referenced under "Related Research" below. The appendix also contains a comparison of these RW&Es to those Fitch considers typical for the asset class as detailed in the Special Report titled "Representations, Warranties and Enforcement Mechanisms in Global Structured Finance Transactions," dated May 31, 2016.

Additional information is available at www.fitchratings.com.

Applicable Criteria

Counterparty Criteria for Structured Finance and Covered Bonds (pub. 01 Sep 2016)

https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/886006

Criteria for Interest Rate Stresses in Structured Finance Transactions and Covered Bonds (pub. 17 May 2016)

https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/879815

Global Structured Finance Rating Criteria (pub. 27 Jun 2016)

https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/883130

Rating U.S. Federal Family Education Loan Program Student Loan ABS Criteria (pub. 26 Jul 2016)

https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/881705

Related Research

Nelnet Student Loan Trust 2012-6 -- Appendix

https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/695791

Additional Disclosures

Dodd-Frank Rating Information Disclosure Form

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/press_releases/content/ridf_frame.cfm?pr_id=1011280

Solicitation Status

https://www.fitchratings.com/gws/en/disclosure/solicitation?pr_id=1011280

Endorsement Policy

https://www.fitchratings.com/jsp/creditdesk/PolicyRegulation.faces?context=2&detail=31

ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: HTTP://FITCHRATINGS.COM/UNDERSTANDINGCREDITRATINGS. IN ADDITION, RATING DEFINITIONS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE AGENCY'S PUBLIC WEBSITE 'WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM'. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA AND METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH'S CODE OF CONDUCT, CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL, COMPLIANCE AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE 'CODE OF CONDUCT' SECTION OF THIS SITE. FITCH MAY HAVE PROVIDED ANOTHER PERMISSIBLE SERVICE TO THE RATED ENTITY OR ITS RELATED THIRD PARTIES. DETAILS OF THIS SERVICE FOR RATINGS FOR WHICH THE LEAD ANALYST IS BASED IN AN EU-REGISTERED ENTITY CAN BE FOUND ON THE ENTITY SUMMARY PAGE FOR THIS ISSUER ON THE FITCH WEBSITE.

View source version on businesswire.com: http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20160906006326/en/

Fitch Ratings
Primary Analyst
Matthew Shaw
Associate Director
+1-212-908-0218
Fitch Ratings, Inc.
33 Whitehall Street
New York, NY 10004
or
Committee Chairperson
Tracy Wan
Senior Director
+1-212-908-9171
or
Media Relations
Sandro Scenga, +1 212-908-0278
[email protected]

Source: Fitch Ratings

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