Fitch: Commodity Prices Lift Metals/Mining, Energy Leveraged Loan Default Rates

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Seventy-seven percent of leveraged loan default volume since the beginning of March 2015 came from metals/mining and energy companies as weak commodity prices have burdened the sector, according to Fitch Ratings.

Although the par-weighted, trailing 12-month, (TTM) institutional leveraged loan default rate finished July at 1.4%, unchanged for the fourth month, the rate for metals/mining jumped to 8.1% from 4.5% following coal producer Walter Energy Inc.'s filing.

'The default rate for metals/mining only stands to increase,' said Eric Rosenthal, Senior Director of Leveraged Finance.

'Alpha's filing will push the rate above 11%, and potential bankruptcies from Arch Coal and Peabody Energy would make a 25% default rate a reality for the sector. However, the default outlook for the broader corporate loan market is tame.'

The July TTM energy rate stands at 3.1%. The overall default rate would fall to 0.5% removing Caesars Entertainment Operating Co. along with the energy and metals/mining defaults, as the other sectors in the institutional leveraged loan market remain resilient.

Term loans in the energy and metals/mining sectors have been pressured by recent market turmoil and the drop in oil prices. As of August 24, 20% of current energy companies were bid below 70 cents, versus just 1% on Dec. 31, 2014. Fifty-four percent of outstanding energy term loans were bid below 90 cents, up from 42% one month earlier. Metals/mining loans saw a similar trend, with 45% of terms loans bid at less than 90 cents versus 35% in mid-July.

TTM post-default prices on first lien loans declined to 70% in July, dragged down by the surge in metals/mining defaults, whose post-default prices stand at just 45%. Without the pressures of these defaults, first lien post default prices are at 78% of par.

The full report, 'U.S. Leveraged Loan Default Insight: Commodity Prices Lift Metals/Mining, Energy Default Rates; Other Sectors Resilient,' is available at www.fitchratings.com

Additional information is available at 'www.fitchratings.com'.

Fitch U.S. Leveraged Loan Default Insight (Commodity Prices Lift Metals/Mining, Energy Default Rates; Other Sectors Resilient)

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=869847

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View source version on businesswire.com: http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20150828005364/en/

Fitch Ratings
Eric Rosenthal
Senior Director
Leveraged Finance
+1-212-908-0286
Fitch Ratings, Inc.
33 Whitehall Street
New York, NY 10004
or
Michael Paladino, CFA
Managing Director
Leveraged Finance
+1-212-908-9113
or
Media Relations:
Alyssa Castelli, New York, +1 212-908-0540
Email: [email protected]

Source: Fitch Ratings

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