Egan-Jones Examines America's Dependence on a Mobile Finance Industry
Finance and insurance generated 2.8 percent of US gross domestic product in 1950 and roughly 8 percent today, while the sector's share of domestic corporate profits peaked near 38 percent in 2002. Talent followed: finance drew 21 percent of Harvard seniors entering the workforce in the Class of 2025, the largest single destination, on a 195 percent pay premium.
The vulnerability is mobility. A firm can manage a billion dollars with nearly the staff it needs for a hundred million, and assets leave as easily as they arrive, as the rapid deposit flight at Silicon Valley Bank showed.
History supplies the pattern.
Trade has already moved. In 2000, 33 countries traded more with
Capital has not followed. The S&P 500 has quintupled since the eve of the financial crisis while the Shanghai Composite sits below its 2007 peak, an advantage attributed to US innovation, capital depth, demographics, and dollar primacy.
America's position does not disappear in this account. Egan-Jones instead offers markers for institutional investors and risk managers: the renminbi's share of trade finance, foreign participation at Treasury auctions, and alternatives to SWIFT, framed as a way to recognize a shift in financial gravity early enough to matter for raising and deploying capital.
About Egan-Jones Ratings
Egan-Jones, an NRSRO founded in 1995, offers timely and accurate credit ratings and proxy services.
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SOURCE Egan-Jones Ratings Co.
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