DoubleLine Paper: Honebuto Shock: Japan Courts a Truss-Like Redux

TAMPA, Fla., July 20, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Sell-offs in Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) and the yen have put Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on notice, a DoubleLine paper argues, that Japan's creditors have little tolerance for her government's unorthodox proposal for a mixture of unfunded fiscal expansion with docile central-banking. 

Surveying the "Honebuto shock," so-named after debt-and-yen sell-off following Tokyo's annual fiscal policy statement, Bill Campbell, head of the DoubleLine's Global Sovereign & Emerging Markets team, sees parallels to the gilts and British pound revolt over a 2022 proposal for unfunded fiscal expansion by U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss that swiftly brought down her government.

"Having committed to more than 370 trillion yen of public-private investment through fiscal 2040, the government is calling for monetary policy "in coordination with" that growth agenda," Mr. Campbell writes. "In the eyes of the financial markets, this demand for the subordination of monetary policy to a political platform only adds fuel to the fire beneath a central bank already under criticism for what critics deem an overly cautious rate-hiking path."

Mr. Campbell warns, "The Takaichi government should not assume the JGB market, having found its voice, will prove more patient than the gilts market that laid low the Truss government in 2022. In today's inflationary climate, fiscal credibility is earned, not presumed – even in the G-7 countries. And a G-7 sovereign who embarks on unfunded fiscal expansion risks courting a buyers' strike."

The paper, titled "Honebuto Shock: Japan Courts a Truss-Like Redux," is available here: https://doubleline.com/wp-content/uploads/DoubleLine_Honebuto-Truss-Redux_Campbell_071526.pdf

Mr. Campbell heads the Global Sovereign & Emerging Markets team at DoubleLine and serves as the lead Portfolio Manager for emerging markets and international fixed-income strategies. He is a permanent member of the firm's Fixed Income Asset Allocation Committee. Mr. Campbell has written extensively in research papers and client briefings on evolving trends and episodic developments in global fixed income and currency markets. He holds a B.S. in Business Economics and International Business, as well as a B.A. in English, from Pennsylvania State University and an M.A. in Mathematics, with a focus on Mathematical Finance, from Boston University.

About the Global Sovereign & Emerging Markets Team

The Global Sovereign & Emerging Markets team at DoubleLine manages $XX billion in assets in sovereign debt, including U.S. Treasuries and non-U.S. sovereign issues, and corporate fixed income securities by issuers domiciled in ex-U.S. developed and emerging markets. The team comprises 14 investment professionals, including portfolio managers, analysts and traders.

About DoubleLine

DoubleLine Capital LP is an investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. DoubleLine's offices can be reached by telephone at (813) 791-7333 or by email at [email protected]. In addition to its headquarters in Tampa, Fla., and an office in Los Angeles, DoubleLine has offices in Dubai, London and Tokyo. Media can reach DoubleLine by email at [email protected].

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SOURCE DoubleLine