Can We Predict Third-Grade Proficiency in Kindergarten? NWEA Research Says Yes

New study examines early indicators that can help educators better support students before achievement disparities become harder to address

BOSTON, June 25, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Starting Kindergarten is a major milestone on a student's academic path, but not all students have an equal starting point. Those early differences can have critical implications for whether students ultimately reach proficiency by third grade — a critical academic benchmark closely tied to long-term educational success.

NWEA, a K-12 assessment and research organization, released a new study today examining Kindergarten MAP Growth test scores from more than 400,000 U.S. students and noted patterns that can predict academic success or identify students at risk of falling further behind. This early identification is key for educators, enabling them to intervene and influence learning trajectories before the next critical milestone: third grade. A body of research shows that students who are not proficient in reading and math by the end of third grade are at higher risk of dropping out of high school or struggling academically throughout their education journey.

The new study found:

• Students' reading and math skills at kindergarten entry are strongly predictive of whether they reach proficiency by 3^rd grade.
• For students who enter kindergarten scoring in the bottom 20%, the probability of reaching proficiency by 3^rd grade is low, just over 1 in 10.
• For struggling students, the door to proficiency closes quickly. Just 1 in 50 students scoring in the bottom 20% in the spring of 1^st grade reached proficiency by the end of 3^rd grade.

Unfortunately, many states don't have systems in place to identify students who may be off track in both math and reading before third grade, missing that critical window where trajectories can be addressed for those at risk.

"What our data highlighted is that achievement at Kindergarten entry provides a meaningful signal about later academic outcomes," said Dr. Megan Kuhfeld, Director of Growth Modeling and Data Analytics at NWEA. "But I want to caution that these results should not be interpreted as evidence that students' academic futures are predetermined. Adjusting trajectories is possible if early intervention is provided."

That early identification is key as the door to proficiency quickly closes. For example, the study found that students in the bottom 20% at the beginning of Kindergarten, 1 in 10 reached proficiency in math, and 1 in 7 reached proficiency in reading by the end of third grade. For those students who were in the bottom 20% at the start of first grade, their chances of reaching proficiency dropped to about 1 in 20 for math and 1 in 17 for reading. By the end of first grade, those odds are even lower, to roughly 1 in 50 students reaching that third-grade milestone.

"While this brief looks at understanding who is at risk, we must also look at what it takes to get students back on track," said Dr. Karyn Lewis, VP of Research and Policy Partnerships at NWEA. "Understanding the 'what' is key in helping educators and policymakers on how to design policies and supports that help more students reach those important academic milestones."

The report is the first in a new NWEA research series examining pathways to third-grade proficiency and the role early intervention can play in helping students stay on track academically.

Read more at: https://www.nwea.org/research/publication/behind-at-the-starting-line-what-kindergarten-test-scores-tell-us-about-reaching-proficiency-in-3rd-grade/

About NWEA

NWEA®, a division of HMH, supports educators worldwide by providing responsive, evidence-based assessment solutions that illuminate learning needs and fuel student growth. For more than 40 years, NWEA has developed innovative pre-K–12 assessments, including its flagship assessment – MAP Growth, and professional learning that helps educators strengthen their practice and improve student outcomes. As part of its commitment to bring valuable insights to the education community, NWEA engages in research that examines issues that shed light on inequities and other barriers to academic opportunities. Visit NWEA.org to find out how NWEA partners to help all kids learn.

Contact: Simona Beattie, Communications Director, [email protected] or 971.361.9526

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SOURCE NWEA