UCLA Anderson Forecast Issues a Recession Watch

• Historically, recessions occur when multiple economic sectors contract at the same time
• Current factors to consider include: a slow-down in the manufacturing sector; reductions in work force because of immigration policy; and cuts in federal government employment

LOS ANGELES, March 18, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- A newly released analysis of the Trump administration's economic policies leads the UCLA Anderson Forecast to issue a recession watch. While there are no signs of a recession happening yet, it is entirely possible that one could form in the near term. Authored by UCLA Anderson Forecast economist Clement Bohr, the study delineates the factors that led to this watch.

From the post-Civil War recession of 1873 to today, recessions have occurred when multiple economic sectors contract at the same time. The new study notes that:

• The current reduction in the work force resulting from new immigration policy will create labor shortages in agriculture, health care, leisure and hospitality, and construction.
• The new tariff policy will engender higher prices for automobiles, apparel, electronics and the inputs to manufacturing.
• The downsizing and restructuring of the federal government will reduce employment in government and at government contractors.

If these, and their consequent feedback into the demand for goods and services, occur simultaneously, they create a recipe for a recession. However, If the impact of these policies is sequential, then a 1995-style slowdown might be possible. As this trifecta of dramatic policy changes has not been experienced before, there is no data to indicate which will happen. Consequently, the Anderson Forecast is on recession watch.

About UCLA Anderson Forecast
UCLA Anderson Forecast is one of the most widely watched and often-cited economic outlooks for California and the nation and was unique in predicting both the seriousness of the early-1990s downturn in California and the strength of the state's rebound since 1993. The Forecast was credited as the first major U.S. economic forecasting group to call the recession of 2001 and, in March 2020, it was the first to declare that the recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic had already begun.
uclaforecast.com

About UCLA Anderson School of Management
UCLA Anderson School of Management is a world-renowned learning and research institution. As part of the nation's No. 1 public university, its mission is to advance management thinking and prepare transformative leaders to make positive business and societal impact. Located in Los Angeles, one of the nation's most diverse and dynamic cities and the creative capital of the world, UCLA Anderson places more MBAs on the West Coast than any other business school, and its graduates also bring an innovative and inclusive West Coast sensibility to leading organizations across the U.S. and the world. Each year, UCLA Anderson's MBA, Fully Employed MBA, Executive MBA, UCLA-NUS Executive MBA, Master of Financial Engineering, Master of Science in Business Analytics and doctoral programs educate more than 2,000 students, while the Executive Education program trains an additional 1,800 professionals. This next generation of transformative leaders will help shape the future of both business and society.
anderson.ucla.edu

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SOURCE UCLA Anderson Forecast