Traders Back Texas Democratic Gains as GOP Faces Unusually Competitive 2026 Races

Polling shows several major Texas races within margin of error as Kalshi traders express interest in the state's closely watched contests.

AUSTIN, Texas, Oct. 8, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Democratic candidates are mounting increasingly competitive challenges across Texas, with recent polling showing Democrats leading or within a few points of Republicans in several statewide and congressional races—a notable development in a state where Republicans have dominated statewide elections for decades. Traders across the country are taking notice, driving increased activity in markets tied to the contests.

The trend is most visible in the U.S. Senate race, where Democratic state Rep. James Talarico has extended his lead over Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton across polls and in Kalshi's Texas Senate market.

An October 3 NYT / Siena College poll showed Talarico ahead of Paxton by six points, 51% to 45%, an increase from their June tie. Predictions from traders are holding at around 65% for Talarico and 35% for Paxton, with a total trading volume reaching $19.6 million less than a month away from Election Day.

The Senate race has attracted particularly heavy spending as both parties and outside groups compete for voters. Advertising expenditures in the Paxton-Talarico race are projected to reach roughly $440 million, more than twice the approximately $210 million spent in the 2024 Cruz-Allred Senate race. The Senate contest is unfolding alongside a competitive race for governor. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is seeking another term against Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, with recent polls showing the race within single digits and different surveys producing different leaders. In October, Hinojosa is now ahead of Gov. Abbott 49% to 46%, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. However, Kalshi traders are predicting Texas keeps the status quo, with Abbott's chance of victory at 72%.

This competitiveness extends beyond the top of the ticket. September's Texas Public Opinion Research poll found Republicans leading Democrats in several statewide races, but by relatively narrow margins in a number of contests. Republican Mayes Middleton led Democrat Nathan Johnson 46% to 43% in the attorney general's race, while Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick led Democrat Vikki Goodwin 47% to 44%.

Republican Comptroller candidate Donald Huffines led Democrat Sarah Eckhardt 46% to 43%, while the race for Railroad Commissioner was even closer, with Republican Bo French leading Democrat Jon Rosenthal by only one point at 45% to 44%.

The Texas races come as Kalshi's broader market for control of the U.S. Senate has also shifted toward Democrats. The Senate control market currently prices Democratic control at 65%, compared with 35% for Republican control.

For a state that has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, the current polling and trading environments represent a notably competitive statewide map heading into the 2026 election.

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SOURCE Kalshi