The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Increased in July

NEW YORK, Aug. 10, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased to 107.71 in July, from an upwardly revised reading of 106.74 in June. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for payroll employment. When the Index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in the trend of job gains or losses is about to occur in the coming months.

"The ETI rebounded in July after declining in May and June, suggesting continued resilience in the labor market, despite the 'low-hire, low-fire' backdrop," said Conrad Qi, Economic Data Scientist Associate, The Conference Board. "Nonetheless, the ETI remains only 0.6% above its level one year ago, suggesting that payroll growth may remain modest in the months ahead. Setting aside numerous special factors that caused hiring volatility this year—including seasonal education worker cuts and normalizing leisure and hospitality hiring after the FIFA World Cup, which lowered non-farm payrolls by 23,000 in July—underlying job growth remains modest but positive."

Qi continued, "Positive contributions to the ETI were led by the share of small firms reporting that jobs are 'not able to be filled right now' and initial claims for unemployment insurance. The small firm measure rose 4 percentage points to 36% in July from 32% in June, its highest level since June 2025—an indication that small businesses are seeking to hire more people. Initial claims for unemployment insurance—the second-largest positive contributor—fell in July compared to June, to its lowest level since September 2022. Lower initial claims indicate that layoffs remain limited."

Other positive contributions included job openings, which were estimated to have increased by 168,000 to 7.53 million, and real manufacturing and trade sales, which were estimated to have increased by 0.2%. The share of consumers who reported "jobs are hard to get"—an ETI component from the Consumer Confidence Survey®—declined to 21.5% in July from 21.7% in June. Employment in the temporary help services industry increased by 3,400 in July.

Meanwhile, the largest negative contributor to the ETI in July came from the share of involuntary part-time workers, which rose to 17.4% from 17.1% in June. Industrial production also contributed negatively.

Ranked by the magnitude of their contributions, two of the ETI's eight components contributed negatively to the index in July: the Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers and Industrial Production. The following six components contributed positively:

• Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now,
• Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance,
• Job Openings,
• Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales,
• Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find 'Jobs Hard to Get,' and
• Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry

The eight leading indicators of employment aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:

• Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey^®)
• Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
• Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
• Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS) ⴕ
• Job Openings (BLS)*
• Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)*
• Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)**

The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index monthly, at 10 a.m. ET, on the Monday that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report. The technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm.

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what's ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

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SOURCE The Conference Board