The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Declined in October and November

NEW YORK, Dec. 19, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) was slightly weaker in October and November, at 105.80, from a downwardly revised 106.24 in September. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for payroll employment. When the Index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in the trend of job gains or losses is about to occur in the coming months.

"The ETI declined in October and November as data delayed by the government shutdown continued to show gradual softening in certain aspects of the labor market," said Mitchell Barnes, Economist at The Conference Board.

The share of involuntary part-time workers (an ETI component) rose in November's Employment Report to 19.2% from the previously reported 16.8% in September. (Note: missing October data was interpolated.) The report also showed that employment in the temporary-help industry fell further in October and November, continuing to decline from its post-pandemic high in 2022. Yet, initial claims for unemployment insurance declined in October and November after touching recent highs in September.

"The recent data reinforce the theme that the US labor market has normalized into a low-turnover environment," added Barnes. "Labor market dynamics continue to point to slowing labor demand alongside moderating supply, but conditions remained roughly in balance as businesses navigate an uncertain economic outlook."

Real manufacturing and trade sales and industrial production continued to hold steady in data through July and September, respectively. (Note: series forecasted through November due to delayed releases.) JOLTS job openings also remained stable in October at 7.7 million, following an increase of 400,000 in September. The share of consumers who report "jobs are hard to get"—an ETI component from the Consumer Confidence Survey®—declined slightly in November to 17.9% from 18.2% in September. The share of small firms that report jobs are "not able to be filled right now" ticked up modestly in November to 33%, after three consecutive months at its post-pandemic low point of 32%.

"Confidence among businesses and consumers remains tepid," concluded Barnes. "The key question to close 2025 is whether economic uncertainty will continue to dampen hiring demand or confidence begins to lift with greater policy clarity."

The combined October and November decrease in the Employment Trends Index was a result of consecutive negative contributions from two of its eight components: the Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers and the Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry. The following five components showed consecutive positive contributions: the Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Job Openings, Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales, and Industrial Production. One component contributed negatively in October and positively in November: the Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get."

The eight leading indicators of employment aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:

• Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey^®)
• Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
• Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
• Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS) ⴕ
• Job Openings (BLS)*
• Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)**
• Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)****

*Statistical imputation for the recent month
**Statistical imputation for two most recent months (due to data release delays)
****Statistical imputation for four most recent months (due to data release delays)
ⴕ Note missing October 2025 value for Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time Workers is estimated using linear interpolation.

The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index monthly, at 10 a.m. ET, on the Monday that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report. The technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm.

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What's Ahead®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. TCB.org

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SOURCE The Conference Board