Services PMI® at 54.9%; September 2024 Services ISM® Report On Business®

Business Activity Index at 59.9%; New Orders Index at 59.4%; Employment Index at 48.1%; Supplier Deliveries Index at 52.1%

TEMPE, Ariz., Oct. 3, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Economic activity in the services sector expanded for the third consecutive month in September, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM^® Report On Business^®. The Services PMI^® registered 54.9 percent, which is the highest reading since February 2023 and indicates sector expansion for the 49th time in 52 months.

The report was issued today by Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) Services Business Survey Committee: "In September, the Services PMI^® registered 54.9 percent, 3.4 percentage points higher than August's figure of 51.5 percent. The reading in September marked the seventh time the composite index has been in expansion territory this year. The Business Activity Index registered 59.9 percent in September, 6.6 percentage points higher than the 53.3 percent recorded in August, indicating a third month of expansion after a contraction in June. The New Orders Index expanded to 59.4 percent in September, 6.4 percentage points higher than August's figure of 53 percent. The Employment Index contracted for the first time in three months; the reading of 48.1 percent is a 2.1-percentage point decrease compared to the 50.2 percent recorded in August.

"The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 52.1 percent, 2.5 percentage points higher than the 49.6 percent recorded in August. The index returned to expansion in September — indicating slower supplier delivery performance — after two months in contraction or 'faster' territory. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM^® Report On Business^® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

"The Prices Index registered 59.4 percent in September, a 2.1-percentage point increase from August's reading of 57.3 percent. The Inventories Index remained in expansion territory for a second month in September after two consecutive months of contraction, registering 58.1 percent, an increase of 5.2 percentage points from August's figure of 52.9 percent. The Inventory Sentiment Index (54 percent, down 0.9 percentage point from August's reading of 54.9 percent) expanded for the 17th consecutive month. The Backlog of Orders Index remained in contraction territory for its second consecutive month, registering 48.3 percent in September, a 4.6-percentage point increase from the August reading of 43.7 percent.

"Twelve industries reported growth in September, up two from the 10 industries reporting growth in August. The Services PMI^® has expanded in 19 of the last 21 months dating back to January 2023, and the September reading is well above its average for 2024."

Miller continues, "The increase in the Services PMI^® in September was driven by boosts of more than 6 percentage points for both the Business Activity and New Orders indexes. The Employment and Supplier Deliveries indexes had mixed results, with a 2.1-percent decrease and 2.5-percent increase, respectively. The Supplier Deliveries Index returned to expansion in September, indicating slower delivery performance. The stronger growth indicated by the index data was generally supported by panelists' comments; however, concerns over political uncertainty are more prevalent than last month. Pricing of supplies remains an issue with supply chains continuing to stabilize; one respondent voiced concern over potential port labor issues. The interest-rate cut was welcomed; however, labor costs and availability continue to be a concern across most industries."

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE
The 12 services industries reporting growth in September — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Mining; Public Administration; Health Care & Social Assistance; Finance & Insurance; Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Educational Services; and Utilities. The five industries reporting a contraction in the month of September are: Other Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Wholesale Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Retail Trade.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

• "Overall, economic factors are somewhat stable in the last month. Volatility was limited, based more on seasonal aspects than geopolitical issues or election season. That stability may be short-lived due to looming port labor issues heading into October." [Accommodation & Food Services]
• "Business has been flat over the past three to six months, with concerns over growth in the near term." [Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting]
• "Housing construction continues to struggle with high interest rates. While the recent half-point cut is encouraging, it may take another 150 basis points to move the needle in sales. Labor and heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) regulations continue to be a drag on construction last month." [Construction]
• "Interest rates in both the housing and auto markets have been steadily declining, leading to a slight increase in auto and home loan applications." [Finance & Insurance]
• "Back orders from manufacturers have increased, resulting in supply constraints." [Health Care & Social Assistance]
• "New projects have not been consolidated in the U.S., which has led my organization to cut costs, especially by dismissing employees from departments with a lower activity volume." [Information]
• "There is concern over the economy, and it feels like a lot of people are waiting to see which way the election goes in November before making a solid plan for 2025 and beyond." [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]
• "Prices remaining mostly steady, with a significant increase in fiscal year-end spending." [Public Administration]
• "Starting to see positive year-over-year change in sales. Slow but steady." [Retail Trade]
• "Sales have slowed a bit, with customers possibly holding back on new projects and awaiting the outcome of the presidential election." [Wholesale Trade]

 

Services ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Employment and Prices indexes. Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE, AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) Equipment; Labor (46); Lumber*; and Lumber — Softwood (2).

Commodities Down in Price
Fuel; Lumber*; Office Supplies; and Steel Products (5).

Commodities in Short Supply
Appliances (2); Electrical Equipment (4); Labor; Labor — Construction (2); and Transformers (4).

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item. 
*Indicates both up and down in price.

SEPTEMBER 2024 SERVICES INDEX SUMMARIES

Services PMI^®
In September, the Services PMI^® registered 54.9 percent, a 3.4-percentage point increase compared to the August reading of 51.5 percent. This is the index's highest level since a figure of 55 percent in February 2023. A reading above 50 percent indicates the services sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates it is generally contracting.

A Services PMI^® above 49 percent, over time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the September Services PMI^® indicates the overall economy is expanding for the third straight month. Miller says, "The past relationship between the Services PMI^® and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI^® for September (54.9 percent) corresponds to a 1.9-percentage point increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis."

SERVICES PMI^® HISTORY

Business Activity
ISM^®'s Business Activity Index registered 59.9 percent in September, 6.6 percentage points higher than the 53.3 percent recorded in August, a third month of expansion after contracting in June for the first time since May 2020. The Business Activity Index has been in expansion territory for 51 out of 52 months since its coronavirus pandemic lows. Comments from respondents include: "This is our busiest time of year, with both the start of an academic year and the start of a fiscal year" and "We are seeing increased activity year over year."

The 12 industries reporting an increase in business activity for the month of September — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Public Administration; Accommodation & Food Services; Educational Services; Finance & Insurance; Transportation & Warehousing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; Utilities; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The three industries reporting a decrease in business activity for the month of September are: Other Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; and Wholesale Trade.

New Orders
ISM^®'s New Orders Index registered 59.4 percent in September, 6.4 percentage points higher than the reading of 53 percent registered in August. The index was in expansion for the third consecutive month after contracting in June for just the second time since May 2020. Comments from respondents include: "Business expansion" and "Order increases are due to added activity (as a result of) the end of our fiscal year."

The 11 industries reporting an increase in new orders for the month of September — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Public Administration; Accommodation & Food Services; Educational Services; Finance & Insurance; Retail Trade; Information; Health Care & Social Assistance; Transportation & Warehousing; and Construction. The three industries reporting a decrease in new orders for the month of September are: Other Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; and Wholesale Trade.

Employment
Employment activity in the services sector contracted in September for the first time in three months. The Employment Index registered 48.1 percent, down 2.1 percentage points from the August figure of 50.2 percent. Comments from respondents include: "Employees leaving, and it's tough to find new ones" and "Head count, open positions and employee retention is about the same month over month."

The six industries reporting an increase in employment in September — listed in order — are: Mining; Construction; Utilities; Health Care & Social Assistance; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Transportation & Warehousing. The nine industries reporting a decrease in employment in September, listed in order, are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Educational Services; Other Services; Retail Trade; Public Administration; Finance & Insurance; Information; Wholesale Trade; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

Supplier Deliveries
In September, the Supplier Deliveries Index indicated slower performance for the first time in three months. The index registered 52.1 percent, up 2.5 percentage points from the 49.6 percent recorded in August. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, while a reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. Comments from respondents include: "Less supply and logistics constraints, with increased availability of materials" and "Slightly lower at 96 percent of purchase orders received on time versus 97 percent the previous month."

The five industries reporting slower deliveries in September are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Other Services; Public Administration; Information; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The six industries reporting faster supplier deliveries for the month of September — listed in order — are: Construction; Wholesale Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Utilities; Educational Services; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. Seven industries reported no change in supplier deliveries in September.

Inventories
The Inventories Index remained in expansion territory for its second consecutive month. The reading of 58.1 percent was a 5.2-percentage point increase compared to the 52.9 percent reported in August. Of the total respondents in September, 45 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: "Continuing to right-size inventory levels" and "Drugs and medications inventory up as we started receiving seasonal vaccines."

The 10 industries reporting an increase in inventories in September — in the following order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Educational Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; Information; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; and Wholesale Trade. The three industries reporting a decrease in inventories in September are: Mining; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Public Administration.

Prices
Prices paid by services organizations for materials and services increased in September for the 88th consecutive month. The Prices Index registered 59.4 percent, 2.1 percentage points higher than the 57.3 percent recorded in August. The September reading is the 23rd in a row below 70 percent, including 17 of the last 18 months at or below 60 percent. Before that, from September 2021 to June 2022, there were 10 straight months of readings near or above 80 percent.

Twelve services industries reported an increase in prices paid during the month of September, in the following order: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Finance & Insurance; Public Administration; Accommodation & Food Services; Other Services; Retail Trade; Utilities; Health Care & Social Assistance; Educational Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; and Information. No industry reported a decrease in prices paid in September. Six industries reported no change in prices paid.

NOTE: Commodities reported as up in price and down in price are listed in the commodities section of this report.

Backlog of Orders
The ISM^® Services Backlog of Orders Index contracted in September for the second month in a row and the fourth time in 2024. The reading of 48.3 percent is 4.6 percentage points higher than the 43.7 percent reported in August. Of the total respondents in September, 39 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders. Respondent comments include: "It is the end of the government's fiscal year, when past appropriated funds must be obligated to avoid the risk of losing those taxpayer funds" and "We have plenty of stock on the floor to fulfill orders, and supplier lead times are short."

The five industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in September are: Other Services; Educational Services; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Finance & Insurance. The seven industries reporting a decrease in order backlogs in September — in the following order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Utilities; and Health Care & Social Assistance. Six industries reported no change in order backlogs in September.

New Export Orders
Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the U.S. by domestically based companies increased in September for the fifth consecutive month after contracting in April and expanding for 11 of the 12 months before that, with the lone contraction in October 2023. The New Export Orders Index registered 56.7 percent, a 5.8-percentage point increase from the 50.9 percent reported in August. Of the total respondents in September, 73 percent indicated they do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the U.S. Respondent comments include: "High level of activity from Israeli companies wanting U.S. support" and "A new project in South America has brought many new orders from outside the U.S."

The seven industries reporting an increase in new export orders in September — in the following order — are: Construction; Retail Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Educational Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Information; and Wholesale Trade. The two industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in September are: Utilities; and Health Care & Social Assistance. Nine industries reported no change in new export orders in September.

Imports
The Imports Index expanded for the third consecutive month in September, registering 52.7 percent, 2.4 percentage points higher than the 50.3 percent reported in August. The index has indicated expansion in 20 of the last 25 months, with contractions in May and June of this year, March 2023 and December 2023, and an "unchanged" status (a reading of 50 percent) in May 2023. Seventy-six percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track the use of, imported materials. Respondent comments include: "Trying to build inventory for the holidays" and "Receipt of transformers from South Korea."

The six industries reporting an increase in imports for the month of September — in the following order — are: Educational Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Retail Trade; Management of Companies & Support Services; Information; and Utilities. The only industry reporting a decrease in imports in September is Wholesale Trade. Eleven industries reported no change in imports in September.

Inventory Sentiment
The ISM^® Services Inventory Sentiment Index grew for the 17th consecutive month in September after one month of contraction in April 2023, preceded by four consecutive months of growth and four months of contraction from August to November 2022. The index registered 54 percent, a 0.9-percentage point decrease from August's figure of 54.9 percent and the lowest reading since June 2023 (54 percent). This reading indicates that respondents feel their inventories are too high when correlated to industry levels.

The eight industries reporting sentiment that their inventories were too high in September — listed in order — are: Wholesale Trade; Mining; Retail Trade; Utilities; Other Services; Construction; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The two industries reporting feeling that their inventories were too low in September are: Management of Companies & Support Services; and Public Administration. Eight industries reported no change in September.

About This Report
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of September 2024.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of supply executives in the services sector based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM^® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation
The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® (formerly the Non-Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^®) is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Services Business Survey Committee (formerly Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee) is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Services Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services). The data are weighted based on each industry's contribution to GDP. According to BEA estimates (the average of the fourth quarter 2022 GDP estimate and the GDP estimates for first, second, and third quarter 2023, as released on December 21, 2023), the six largest services sectors are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; and Finance & Insurance.

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response and the diffusion index. Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.

The Services PMI^® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the services economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

A Services PMI^® above 49 percent, over time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 49 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 49 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline.

The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® survey is sent out to Services Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on U.S. operations for the current month. ISM^® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM^® then compiles the report for release on the third business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

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About Institute for Supply Management^®
Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) is the first and leading not-for-profit professional supply management organization worldwide. Its community of more than 50,000 in more than 100 countries manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 by practitioners, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM empowers and leads the profession through the ISM^® Report On Business^®, its highly-regarded certification and training programs, corporate services, events, and assessments. The ISM^® Report On Business^®, Manufacturing, Services, and Hospital, are three of the most reliable economic indicators available, providing guidance to supply management professionals, economists, analysts, and government and business leaders. For more information, please visit: www.ismworld.org.

The full text version of the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® is posted on ISM^®'s website at www.ismrob.org on the third business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET. The one exception is in January, the report is released on the fourth business day of the month.

The next Services ISM^® Report On Business^® featuring October 2024 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.

*Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.

 

 

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SOURCE Institute for Supply Management