Services PMI® at 53.4%; January 2024 Services ISM® Report On Business®

Business Activity Index at 55.8%; New Orders Index at 55%; Employment Index at 50.5%; Supplier Deliveries Index at 52.4%

This report reflects the recently completed annual adjustments to the seasonal factors used to calculate the indexes.

TEMPE, Ariz., Feb. 5, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Economic activity in the services sector expanded in January for the 13th consecutive month as the Services PMI^® registered 53.4 percent, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM^® Report On Business^®. The sector has grown in 43 of the last 44 months, with the lone contraction in December 2022.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) Services Business Survey Committee: "In January, the Services PMI^® registered 53.4 percent, 2.9 percentage points higher than December's seasonally adjusted reading of 50.5 percent. The composite index indicated growth in January for the 13th consecutive month after a seasonally adjusted reading of 49 percent in December 2022, which was the first contraction since May 2020 (45.4 percent). The Business Activity Index registered 55.8 percent in January, matching the seasonally adjusted reading of 55.8 percent in December. The New Orders Index expanded in January for the 13th consecutive month after contracting in December 2022 for the first time since May 2020; the figure of 55 percent is 2.2 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 52.8 percent.

"The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 52.4 percent, 2.9 percentage points above the 49.5 percent recorded in December. The index returned to expansion — indicating that supplier delivery performance was slower — after three consecutive months in contraction (or 'faster') territory. In the last 12 months, the average reading of 48.6 percent (with a low of 45.8 in March) reflects the fastest supplier delivery performance since December 2022, when the index registered 48.5 percent. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM^® Report On Business^® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

"The Prices Index registered 64 percent in January, a 7.3-percentage point increase from December's seasonally adjusted reading of 56.7 percent. The Inventories Index contracted in January, registering 49.1 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point from December's figure of 49.6 percent. The Inventory Sentiment Index (59.3 percent, up 4 percentage points from December's reading of 55.3 percent) expanded for the ninth consecutive month. The Backlog of Orders Index returned to expansion in January after two consecutive months in contraction, registering 51.4 percent, a 2-percentage point increase compared to the December reading of 49.4 percent.

"Ten industries reported growth in January. The Services PMI^®, by being above 50 percent for the 13th consecutive month (after a single month of contraction in December 2022 and a prior 30-month period of expansion), continues to indicate sustained growth — and at a faster rate in January — for the sector."

Nieves continues, "The overall growth rate increase in January is attributable to faster growth of the New Orders, Employment, and Supplier Deliveries indexes. The majority of respondents indicate that business is steady. They are optimistic about the economy due to the potential impact of interest rate cuts; however, they are cautious due to inflation, associated cost pressures and ongoing geopolitical conflicts."

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE

The 10 services industries reporting growth in January — listed in order — are: Health Care & Social Assistance; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Public Administration; Utilities; Accommodation & Food Services; Construction; Other Services; Educational Services; and Management of Companies & Support Services. The seven industries reporting a decrease in the month of January — listed in order — are: Information; Retail Trade; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Mining; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Wholesale Trade; and Finance & Insurance.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

• "Supply chain disruptions forced a change to min/max (inventory calculations) to assure on-time materials; now that most disruptions are over, those calculations are being normalized, which will slow down ordering while inventories right-size. The district is seeing higher-than-normal turnover as workers are being aggressively pursued by districts offering higher wages. Water sales are lower than expected due to unseasonably cool weather. This will put pressure on rates, along with an increase in wages in order to attract and retain quality employees." [Utilities]
• "Transportation impacts of the Suez Canal, due to unrest in the Red Sea and the issues at the Panama Canal are impacting both costs and schedules for the transport of global goods." [Construction]
• "Last year was tough for our business. We are hoping that the economy improves and things stabilize in 2024. It's a presidential election year, so we're hopeful." [Wholesale Trade]
• "Economy signals are mixed. Some sectors are booming and some — like solar and wind power, ship building and electric vehicles — are slowing down. Other downward-trending sectors are iron and steel, paper and communication equipment. But overall, the economy is in good shape and there is no imminent threat of a recession." [Retail Trade]
• "Economic indicators generally look good; however, there is still some uncertainty. We continue to see more demand for our services, but this may not be indicative: Our services are always more in demand when the economy is worse than when it is better. It would be amiss not to mention that we are still seeing the effect of people returning to offices, which impacts demand. Though demand has continually increased, it is not at pre-pandemic levels." [Transportation Equipment]
• "Increase in activity; expecting a busy 2024." [Finance & Insurance]
• "Most companies I work with are gearing up for a tough 2024. Some may be overreacting, but there is a general sense that election years in the U.S. result in unrest, which is causing everyone to be conservative with spend." [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]
• "The writers and actors strike has impacted our business significantly. This will not be a great year for movie exhibitors." [Arts, Entertainment & Recreation]
• "Respiratory sicknesses — COVID-19, RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) and flu — continue to keep our facility hopping to treat patients." [Health Care & Social Assistance]
• "(Looking to rebound) after a significant downturn in December, which was likely due to extended plant shutdowns, customer inventory burns and lingering effects from the United Auto Workers (UAW) strike." [Wholesale Trade]

 

Services ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Employment and Prices indexes. Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.
Indexes reflect newly released seasonal adjustment factors.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE, AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Beef Products; Construction Contractors; Electrical Components (3); Food and Catering (2); Labor (38); Labor — Contract (5); Labor — Skilled; Maintenance Contracts; Maintenance, Repair and Operations (MRO) Supplies; Office Equipment; Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) Components; Power Tools; Software Maintenance and Support (2); Specialty Chemicals; and Steel Products (2).

Commodities Down in Price
Copper Products; Diesel Fuel (2); Gasoline (3); Gloves; and Soybean Products.

Commodities in Short Supply
Appliances; Construction Contractors; Electrical Components; IV Products (2); Switch Gear; Transformers (17); and Vehicles (5).

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

JANUARY 2024 SERVICES INDEX SUMMARIES

Services PMI^®
In January, the Services PMI^® registered 53.4 percent, a 2.9-percentage point increase compared to the seasonally adjusted December reading of 50.5 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates the services sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates it is generally contracting.

A Services PMI^® above 49 percent, over time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the January Services PMI^® indicates the overall economy is growing for the 13th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022. Nieves says, "The past relationship between the Services PMI^® and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI^® for January (53.4 percent) corresponds to a 1.5-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis."

SERVICES PMI^® HISTORY

Business Activity
ISM^®'s Business Activity Index registered 55.8 percent in January, the same reading as the seasonally adjusted 55.8 percent recorded in December, indicating growth for the 44th consecutive month. The Business Activity Index has been in expansion territory since recovering from its coronavirus pandemic lows. Comments from respondents include: "Clients more optimistic on rate cuts and the economy" and "(December) included the holidays, which is a slower time; with the start of the calendar year, business picks back up."

The 10 industries reporting an increase in business activity for the month of January — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; Management of Companies & Support Services; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Wholesale Trade; Finance & Insurance; Educational Services; and Transportation & Warehousing. The five industries reporting a decrease in business activity for the month of January are: Retail Trade; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Information; Mining; and Arts, Entertainment & Recreation.

New Orders
ISM^®'s New Orders Index registered 55 percent, 2.2 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted reading of 52.8 registered in December. The index indicated expansion for the 13th consecutive month after contracting in December 2022, ending a string of 30 consecutive months of growth. Comments from respondents include: "New calendar year, new slew of projects" and "Coming off the holidays brings an uptick in work as people return from vacation." Also: "We are seeing increased spending for capital projects."

The eight industries reporting an increase in new orders for the month of January — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; Educational Services; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; and Finance & Insurance. The six industries reporting a decrease in new orders for the month of January — listed in order — are: Retail Trade; Mining; Information; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; and Transportation & Warehousing.

Employment
Employment activity in the services sector expanded in January after one month of contraction, six consecutive months of growth and a month of contraction in May 2023. The Employment Index registered 50.5 percent, up 6.7 percentage points from the seasonally adjusted December figure of 43.8 percent. This month-over-month increase is the largest since a 7-percentage point gain in January 2021; the index also rose 11.9 percentage points in June 2020. Comments from respondents include: "Ramping up head count as projects come on line" and "Highly competitive market due to salary, demand and turnover."

The three industries reporting an increase in employment in January are: Construction; Accommodation & Food Services; and Public Administration. The eight industries reporting a decrease in employment in January — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Finance & Insurance; Information; Educational Services; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; and Utilities. Seven industries reported no change in employment in January.

Supplier Deliveries
In January, the Supplier Deliveries Index indicated slower performance after three consecutive months of faster performance, registering 52.4 percent, up 2.9 percentage points from the 49.5 percent recorded in December. The index has been in "faster" territory in 10 of the last 12 months. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, while a reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. Comments from respondents include: "More delays, with weather, shipping costs and backlog all playing roles" and "Slower transit times all around."

The nine industries reporting slower deliveries in January — listed in order — are: Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Other Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Educational Services; and Utilities. The five industries reporting faster supplier deliveries for the month of January are: Wholesale Trade; Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Information; and Public Administration.

Inventories
The Inventories Index contracted for the second consecutive month, and at a faster rate in January. The reading of 49.1 percent was a 0.5-percentage point decrease compared to the 49.6 percent reported in December. Of the total respondents in January, 48 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: "We have begun reducing inventories now that lead times have returned to pre-pandemic levels" and "A continuing effort to operate with higher turns."

The eight industries reporting an increase in inventories in January — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Educational Services; Other Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Transportation & Warehousing; Utilities; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The seven industries reporting a decrease in inventories in January, in order, are: Retail Trade; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Construction; Management of Companies & Support Services; Wholesale Trade; Public Administration; and Health Care & Social Assistance.

Prices
Prices paid by services organizations for materials and services increased in January for the 80th consecutive month. The Prices Index registered 64 percent, 7.3 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted 56.7 percent registered in December. This month-over-month increase is the largest since August 2012 (9.3 percentage points). The January reading is the 19th in a row near or below 70 percent (with nine straight months at or below 60 percent, from April to December 2023), following 10 straight months of readings near or above 80 percent.

Fifteen services industries reported an increase in prices paid during the month of January, in the following order: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Construction; Other Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Wholesale Trade; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Retail Trade; Finance & Insurance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Utilities; Information; and Transportation & Warehousing. The only industry reporting a decrease in prices for January is Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting.

NOTE: Commodities reported as up in price and down in price are listed in the commodities section of this report.

Backlog of Orders
The ISM^® Services Backlog of Orders Index returned to expansion after two consecutive months in contraction. The index reading of 51.4 percent is 2 percentage points higher than the 49.4 percent reported in December. Of the total respondents in January, 49 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders. Respondent comments include: "Primary distributor experiencing internal replenishment challenges" and "Material shortages."

The seven industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in January — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Retail Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; and Educational Services. The nine industries reporting a decrease in order backlogs in January — listed in order — are: Other Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Mining; Wholesale Trade; Information; Transportation & Warehousing; Finance & Insurance; Construction; and Public Administration.

New Export Orders
Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the U.S. by domestically based companies increased in January for the third consecutive month after a sizeable decline into contraction in October preceded by six consecutive months of expansion. The New Export Orders Index registered 56.1 percent, a 5.7-percentage point increase from the 50.4 percent reported in December. Of the total respondents in January, 70 percent indicated they do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the U.S.

The five industries reporting an increase in new export orders in January are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Information; Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Wholesale Trade. The two industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in January are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; and Transportation & Warehousing. Eleven industries reported no change in new export orders in January.

Imports
The Imports Index expanded substantially in January, registering 59.9 percent, 10.6 percentage points higher than December's reading of 49.3 percent. This month-over-month increase is the largest since April 2009 (11.5 percentage points). The index has indicated expansion in 11 of the last 13 months, with contractions in December and March of 2023 and an "unchanged" status (a reading of 50 percent) in May. Sixty-six percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track the use of, imported materials.

The seven industries reporting an increase in imports for the month of January, in order, are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Retail Trade; Construction; Utilities; Management of Companies & Support Services; Information; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The four industries reporting a decrease in imports in January are: Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; Wholesale Trade; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. Seven industries reported no change in imports in January.

Inventory Sentiment
The ISM^® Services Inventory Sentiment Index grew for the ninth consecutive month in January after one month of contraction in April, preceded by four consecutive months of growth and four months of contraction from August to November 2022. The index registered 59.3 percent, a 4-percentage point increase from December's figure of 55.3 percent. This reading indicates that respondents feel their inventories are too high when correlated to business activity levels.

The 13 industries reporting sentiment that their inventories were too high in January — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Other Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Wholesale Trade; Utilities; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Construction; Retail Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; and Management of Companies & Support Services. The only industry reporting a feeling that their inventories were too low in January is Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

About This Report
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of January 2024.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of supply executives in the services sector based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM^® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation
The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® (formerly the Non-Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^®) is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Services Business Survey Committee (formerly Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee) is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Services Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services). The data are weighted based on each industry's contribution to GDP. According to BEA estimates (the average of the fourth quarter 2022 GDP estimate and the GDP estimates for first, second, and third quarter 2023, as released on December 21, 2023), the six largest services sectors are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; and Finance & Insurance.

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response and the diffusion index. Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.

The Services PMI^® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the services economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

A Services PMI^® above 49 percent, over time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 49 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 49 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline.

The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® survey is sent out to Services Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on U.S. operations for the current month. ISM^® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM^® then compiles the report for release on the third business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

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About Institute for Supply Management^®
Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) is the first and leading not-for-profit professional supply management organization worldwide. Its community of more than 50,000 in more than 100 countries manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 by practitioners, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM empowers and leads the profession through the ISM^® Report On Business^®, its highly-regarded certification and training programs, corporate services, events, and assessments. The ISM^® Report On Business^®, Manufacturing, Services, and Hospital, are three of the most reliable economic indicators available, providing guidance to supply management professionals, economists, analysts, and government and business leaders. For more information, please visit: www.ismworld.org.

The full text version of the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® is posted on ISM^®'s website at www.ismrob.org on the third business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET. The one exception is in January, the report is released on the fourth business day of the month.

The next Services ISM^® Report On Business^® featuring February 2024 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

*Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.

 

 

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SOURCE Institute for Supply Management