New Spectrum Policy Changes the 5G Forecast

How recent legislation will impact investment in 5G and 6G infrastructure

CAMPBELL, Calif., Sept. 2, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Mobile Experts Inc. updated its forecast series for 5G and 6G base stations this week, after reviewing recent legislation in the "Big Beautiful Bill" and gathering input from American telcos.

On the positive side, the legislation reinstated the spectrum auction authority for the FCC, so new spectrum can be licensed again for commercial use. This was not a surprise and didn't impact the Mobile Experts forecast.

On the other hand, the bill excludes two specific bands, at 3.1 – 3.45 GHz and 7.4 – 8.4 GHz, which were hoped to provide wideband options to support high-capacity mobile traffic. Instead, the bill designated bands at 2.7-2.9 GHz, 4.4 – 4.9 GHz, and 7.25 – 7.4 GHz for study as well as directing FCC to auction 100 MHz between 3.98 – 4.2 GHz.

The impact is a mixed bag. For 6G, many telcos had hoped for a 400 – 500 MHz wide block of spectrum between 7.1 GHz and 8.4 GHz despite the presence of incumbent users. This legislation shuts down that possibility in the United States, but opens up specific opportunities in four different bands. Narrow blocks of spectrum may result in more radios in some places, but less enthusiasm for nationwide investment by the operators.

"The impact on our forecast is pretty complex here," said Joe Madden, Principal Analyst. "We've increased the number of products to be sold in the US market, and we've firmed up the timing of the next investment wave…but the number of sites deployed could be lower."

The Mobile Experts research on mobile infrastructure forecasts 4G, 5G, and 6G radio shipments very accurately, by triangulation between operators, network vendors, and component vendors of many kinds. When the number of filters matches with the number of power amplifiers, the Mobile Experts team has high confidence in their tracking process.

Deliverables in the research series include:

• Mobile Infrastructure revenue and market share tracking;
• Base station shipments and global system-level breakdowns by region, power level, MIMO level, frequency, etc.;
• Radio transceiver analysis with specific tracking of PA, filter, data converter, and baseband semiconductor revenue and market share;
• Virtual RAN and Open RAN adoption forecasts;
• Small Cell shipment, revenue, and market share tracking;
• Cost analysis to illustrate the ROI for operators to invest in 6G

About Mobile Experts Inc.:
Mobile Experts provides insightful market analysis for the wireless industry. More than 150 companies subscribe to Mobile Experts forecasts and contribute to making each prediction as accurate as possible. The team consists of telecom professionals, all trained engineers, that spent 20+ years in product management and other business roles.

Recent research has focused on Private LTE and 5G, Satellite Broadband, Fixed Wireless Access (FWA), and the impact of AI on 5G networks.

Media Contact:
Rachel Winningham
408-374-0690
[email protected] 

View original content:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/new-spectrum-policy-changes-the-5g-forecast-302542178.html

SOURCE Mobile Experts Inc