Ipsos 2024 U.S. National Election Survey - May 2024

Information and news silos are the unspoken primary drivers of this election

WASHINGTON, May 16, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- The first Ipsos 2024 independent national election survey finds that among registered voters, the race for president is tied between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. Most election coverage and analysis of the polls focus on partisanship or demographic groups; however, a striking and under-covered story of this cycle emerges when analyzing results by media silos or "main media source."

Viewed through that lens, most of the support for Donald Trump comes from people who get news from conservative media, social media, or have no major source of news. Biden's base of support, on the other hand, is dominated by people who use 'mainstream' news outlets (including cable news, network news, and national newspapers). College education and race and ethnicity intersect in meaningful ways, framing what sources of news people turn to, their political reality, and their support for the two major party candidates. For more data and findings, click here.

Detailed findings:

1. The American public is fragmented by where they get their news.
   • • Roughly the same number of Americans get their news primarily from network news as social media or digital sources. From there, the next most popular places Americans turn to for news are local news, Fox News or conservative outlets, and newspapers. Finally, the next popular place for news is CNN or MSNBC. About one in five Americans (18%) don't primarily get their news from these sources or do not have a preferred source of news.
2. However, not all Americans are tuning into the same news sources with substantial differences when looking at the ways race and ethnicity intersect with education. Americans without a college degree are less likely to follow mainstream sources.
   • • White Americans with a Bachelor's degree are more likely than white Americans without a Bachelor's degree to get their news from the mainstream media, that is a newspaper, public outlet, a major network, CNN, or MSNBC. White non-college educated Americans are more likely to get their news from social media or an unlisted or undefined source.
     • Black Americans, regardless of education, turn primarily to mainstream news sources. However, Black Americans without a college degree are more likely to turn to social media or some undefined or unlisted source than Black Americans with a college degree.
     • These patterns weaken among Hispanic Americans. While slightly more Hispanics with a Bachelor's degree than those without one follow mainstream news, nearly an equal share of Hispanic Americans with a Bachelor's degree primarily get news from the mainstream media as those who get it from social media or some other source (30% mainstream news vs. 34% social/other). Hispanic Americans without a college degree are far more likely to turn to social media or some other unlisted source for news than any other news source.
     • Likewise, college education among AAPI Americans, those who identify with two or more races or as "other" drives news consumption habits. These Americans are more likely to turn to social media or some other news source than their college-educated peers.
3. This fragmentation feeds directly into how people understand political issues.
   • • Preferred news source shapes what Americans see, worry about, what they know, along with what policies they support. Americans who follow social media or some other undisclosed news source perform worse on knowledge tests that assess whether they can identify true or false statements around topics, such as immigration or facts about the 2020 election.
4. The 2024 race is tied. But that tie is built on substantial fault lines, particularly by how people get their news and by race and educational attainment.
   • • Among registered voters, 37% support President Joe Biden for president in the election in November, while 35% support former President Donald Trump.
     • When registered voters who select Robert F. Kennedy Jr., some other candidate, would not vote, or don't know are pushed to pick one of the two major party candidates, 48% of registered voters choose Biden and 48% choose Trump.
     • Registered voters who support Biden are more likely to get their news from the mainstream media than Trump voters (25% vs. 8%, respectively). Trump voters are more likely than Biden voters to get their news primarily from conservative media (11% vs. 1%), and social media, some other source, or an unlisted source (16% vs. 8%).
     • Race, ethnicity, and educational attainment drive differences in which candidates people support. Majorities of college-educated Americans, regardless of race or ethnicity, support Biden over Trump. However, Biden's support among Black college-educated Americans (89% say they would vote for Biden vs. 9% that say they would vote for Trump) and Hispanic college-educated Americans (62% vs. 36%) is larger than it is among white college-educated (54% vs. 43%) and AAPI, 2+ race/other (55% vs. 40%).
     • Except for white non-college-educated Americans, Trump does not win majority support from non-college-educated Americans. However, he does better among this group than among the college-educated. Among those without a college degree, 47% of Hispanics and 45% of AAPI/2+ race/other support Trump, up 11 points and five points from each group's college degree-holding counterparts, respectively. Likewise, 22% of Black Americans without a college degree support Trump, up from 9% of Black college-educated Americans.

About the Study

This Ipsos 2024 National Election survey was conducted May 7-13, 2024, by Ipsos using our KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 2,144 adults ages 18+.

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult US population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population. KnowledgePanel members receive a per survey incentive, usually the equivalent of $1 (though for some it is $2) in points, that can be redeemed for cash or prizes. No prenotification email for this study was sent prior to field. Panelists receive a unique login to the survey and are only able to complete it one time. No reminder emails were sent for this study.

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.06. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. Sampling error is only one potential source of error. There may be other unmeasured non-sampling error in this or any poll. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.

The study was conducted in English. The data were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region, metropolitan status, household income and 2020 vote. The demographic benchmarks came from 2023 Current Population Survey (CPS) from the US Census Bureau. 2020 vote results are from the official vote totals of the 2020 presidential election. The weighting categories were as follows:

• Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45–59, and 60+)
• Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other or 2+ Races Non-Hispanic, Hispanic)
• Education (High School graduate or less, Some College, Bachelors and beyond)
• Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West)
• Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
• Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
• 2020 vote (Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Other, Didn't vote)

About Ipsos

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