Homebuying in America Now Hinges on Income Stability

New Truework analysis of 300,000 verified mortgage applicants reveals how location, occupation and consistent income are reshaping who can afford to buy today

SAN FRANCISCO, April 22, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Income stability is emerging as a new gatekeeper to homeownership, and for many Americans, the bar is getting higher. A new analysis by Truework, based on nearly 300,000 lender-verified mortgage applicants, finds that earning a good income is no longer sufficient to qualify for a home loan. Instead, income stability—along with where you live and how you earn—has become a key determinant in who qualifies for a mortgage and who gets shut out.

The Truework report, "The American Dream, Recalculated: Who Can Still Afford to Buy a Home—and Why," draws on one of the largest datasets of verified income records used in mortgage underwriting, offering a detailed view of today's housing market. Analyzing anonymized applicant data from 2022 through 2025, Truework combines real income records* with home values and mortgage rates to show how rising borrowing costs and shifting workforce dynamics are fundamentally reshaping affordability.

Unlike traditional affordability studies based on surveys or Census data, Truework's analysis uses verified income and employment records collected during the mortgage application process. The report details how income stability—measured by factors like earnings consistency over time—is a critical yet often overlooked element that can determine whether a borrower qualifies for a mortgage, even when their annual income appears sufficient.

"Stability Gap" Emerges as Hidden Factor in Homeownership Eligibility
One of the report's most significant findings is the emergence of a growing "stability gap" in homeownership. Increasingly, borrowers are evaluated not only on how much they earn, but also on the predictability of those earnings. This creates a new divide between those with steady, salaried income and those who have variable or nontraditional pay.

"It is no longer enough to earn a good income; you need to earn it predictably, in the right occupation, and in the right state. For millions of Americans in service, care, and hourly roles, homeownership is increasingly out of reach, not because they aren't working hard enough, but because the system was not built to accommodate how they earn," said Truework President and Founder, Ethan Winchell.

Unstable Income: The Hidden Disqualifier for Homeownership
The share of mortgage applicants experiencing any downside income instability (defined as the average month-over-month drop in an applicant's observed income) increased from 50% in early 2022 to 62% by mid-2025. At the same time, the severity of those income swings nearly tripled. This trend reflects a shift in today's modern workforce and highlights that many borrowers may not meet standard mortgage qualification criteria.

Even modest fluctuations in monthly income can push a borrower from qualifying to non-qualifying status. This means two individuals with the same annual income can have very different outcomes in the mortgage process. Additionally, buying in states with lower home prices does not necessarily guarantee access to financing. In many regions, inconsistent incomes—driven by hourly, seasonal, or commission-based work—continue to limit borrowers' ability to qualify for mortgages.

A 65-Point Gap in Affordability Across States
Geography continues to influence homeownership affordability, especially when combined with income stability. In high-cost states like Hawaii, only 16% of verified borrowers meet standard mortgage eligibility criteria. California follows with 32%, then Washington, at 40% affordability.

In contrast, in several states in the Midwest and South—such as West Virginia, Louisiana, Illinois, North Dakota, and Ohio—between 76% and 81% of borrowers meet standard affordability thresholds. This leads to a roughly 65-percentage-point gap in affordability across states, reflecting just how fragmented the national housing market has become.

What You Do for Work and Where You Do It Matters
In addition to income stability, occupation and geography also have a significant impact on mortgage eligibility. Specifically, depending on the state, some professions are guaranteed a path to homeownership, while others can be effectively locked out. For example, only 4% of Food Service workers in the high-cost state of Hawaii can afford to buy a home there, whereas nearly 100% of Software Engineers in the less expensive state of Maine can achieve homeownership.

And on a national level, the contrast is also striking. While workers in higher-income, salaried fields—such as those in Computer and Mathematical occupations (74% of whom can afford to buy) and Management positions (71% can afford to buy) are able to qualify for a mortgage in most U.S. markets, those in lower-wage, variable-income roles face much more significant barriers to homeownership, with only 20% of Food Preparation & Serving workers and about 20% of Healthcare Support workers qualifying to buy a home in most states.

2026 Outlook: A Housing Market Built for Stability vs Flexibility
Truework's findings point to a broader structural shift in the housing market. Access to homeownership is increasingly defined by income stability rather than just earnings alone.

At the same time, the nature of work is evolving. As more Americans earn through gig work, commissions, and non-traditional roles, the prevalence of variable incomes is expected to rise. However, mortgage qualification systems are still designed for a different era—one that prioritizes steady and predictable paychecks.

"Unless underwriting models evolve to better account for modern income patterns, we may end up with a housing market that systematically favors predictability over earning potential, leaving a growing share of the workforce on the outside looking in," said Winchell.

"The American Dream, Recalculated" includes full state-by-state breakdowns, occupation-level analysis, analysis of income stability, and a complete description of the methodology used. Download the full report at truework.com/resources/blog/truework-affordability-report-2026.

About Truework
Truework, a Checkr company, is the leading platform that solves income and employment verification pain points for mortgage lenders. Powered by automation and machine learning, Truework delivers comprehensive, vetted, and accurate verification reports—achieving a 75% completion rate and helping leading mortgage companies cut verification costs by up to 50%. To learn more, visit truework.com.

*Note: All personally identifiable information was removed from the applicant income records for this analysis.

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SOURCE Truework