Egan-Jones Examines State-Level Risk to Private Commercial Assets

NEW YORK, Sept. 3, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Egan-Jones released an analysis examining how the falling cost of long-range attacks (e.g., Ukraine's attacks on Russia-based Wildberries) has left privately owned commercial assets exposed to state-level conflict risk, and how those losses travel to the merchants, insurers and lenders behind the operator that is struck.

Deterrence between nuclear states remains intact, the commentary holds, but the cost of inflicting serious damage has collapsed. Drones costing roughly $2,000 each damaged about a third of Russia's strategic cruise missile carriers in Ukraine's Operation Spiderweb of June 2025. Range is no longer a constraint: a July 2026 strike on the Omsk refinery was carried out almost 2,500 kilometers from Ukrainian-held territory.

Commercial infrastructure has proved no less reachable. Between July 18 and August 4, 2026, drones struck at least sixteen facilities of Wildberries, the retailer behind about 45 percent of Russian online commerce, across fourteen regions. The published floor area comes to 2.0 million square meters in eighteen days, about 4 percent of the North American space Amazon reported in its latest annual filing.

Where the loss settled is the central point for credit investors. Eleven days before the first strike, the platform revised its terms to disclaim liability for goods destroyed in force majeure events, leaving sellers uncompensated and moving the cost onto thousands of small merchants. Insurance took a share and declined the balance. A physical loss at a dispersed borrower, Egan-Jones observes, resolves into a capital question at a lender whose own assets were never subject to attack.

Every defense carries a ceiling. Passive hardening isn't viable at scale, and defenders pay 20x – 600x the attacker's unit cost. Egan-Jones asks whether holders of asset-heavy private positions have examined state-level exposure, and sets out what to document: site concentration, replacement lead times, war and hostile-act exclusions, contractual loss allocation, and counterparty pass-through.

The leading indicator, the firm suggests, is whether a product line or contract lets a business be characterized as supporting a state's military effort. Wildberries became a target after its own catalog listed drone components. Egan-Jones concludes that deterrence has not failed among states, but that losses can now be inherited by parties never struck directly.

About Egan-Jones Ratings
Egan-Jones, an NRSRO founded in 1995, offers timely and accurate credit ratings and proxy services.

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SOURCE Egan-Jones Ratings Co.