What is the outlook for Amazon stock in 2026?

Investing.com -- Raymond James analyst Josh Beck told clients in a note on Tuesday that Amazon entered 2026 as a “Tweener” in its AI Stack framework, with artificial intelligence likely to be the key swing factor for the stock amid expectations for a strong fundamental backdrop.

Beck lowered the price target to $260 from $275, based on 27 times 2027 projected earnings, noting a cautious view on Agentic Commerce risks is balanced by above-Street estimates for AWS and untapped robotics potential.

Beck is “constructive heading into Q4 supported by robust holiday trends, favorable ad checks (Ads, Cloud) and beatable AWS estimates,” while emphasizing that “the AI Narrative is likely the primary factor influencing stock performance in the year ahead.”

He highlighted the importance of progress on initiatives including Trainium/Neuron, Nova/Kira, Alexa+/Rufus, Zoox/Prime Air drones, and robotics to strengthen Amazon’s AI Stack positioning.

On retail, Raymond James flagged the potential for Agentic Commerce to drive significant growth, estimating “~$400 billion potential in 2030” through frameworks designed to streamline discovery and purchase, including tools like Rufus and Buy For Me.

The firm cautioned that if Amazon’s e-commerce share declines modestly, “core retail growth (1P, 3P, Ads) could be 1% below Street estimates.”

AWS remains a bright spot, with Raymond James projecting 22–23% growth in 2026, above Street expectations, driven by AI-related revenue, including $11 billion from AI XPU, $8 billion from AI GPU, and $1 billion from Bedrock.

Beck noted that “AWS product innovation will be a critical factor for growth durability.”

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