U.S. December unemployment rate estimated at 4.6% by Chicago Fed

December 30, 2025 9:19 AM EST

Investing.com -- The Chicago Federal Reserve estimated on Tuesday that the U.S. unemployment rate remained at 4.6% in December, unchanged from November’s official rate.

The November figure was likely distorted by technical issues related to the government shutdown, according to economists. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the official December unemployment rate on January 9, with economists expecting a slight decrease to 4.5%.

The Chicago Fed’s estimate, which is derived from public and private data and published twice monthly, showed little change in hiring or firing rates. This estimate provides policymakers with a more timely view of this key economic measure.

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate in response to what most members perceived as a weakening labor market. The decision was contested, drawing three dissents. The Fed signaled it would likely pause further rate cuts in the new year while awaiting additional economic data.

Minutes from the Fed’s recent meeting are scheduled for release later Tuesday.


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