Stifel lifts Tesla price target on accelerating FSD and robotaxi progress

Investing.com -- Stifel has raised its price target on Tesla to $508 from $483, citing stronger-than-expected advances in full self-driving (FSD) and robotaxi development, two areas the firm views as “critical to value creation.”

The brokerage maintained its Buy rating and said its updated valuation reflects a more bullish outlook on Tesla’s long-term technology monetisation.

In the note, Stifel analyst Stephen Gengaro explained that the increase is based on its sum-of-the-parts framework.

The firm continues to see robust momentum beyond the core auto segment even as it anticipates near-term softness.

Following strong third-quarter sales, Stifel warned it “expect[s] some headwinds for auto sales following the expiration of the U.S. EV tax credit.”

The analyst added that Tesla is “making strong progress on FSD and Robotaxi,” reiterating that both are essential drivers of shareholder value.

Stifel also lifted its EBITDA forecasts meaningfully. For 2025 and 2026, the firm now expects $14.859 billion and $19.489 billion, respectively, both higher than prior estimates. The 2027 forecast was adjusted modestly to $20.605 billion.

Stifel detailed the components of its revised valuation: the target reflects “20-25x projected 2026 EBITDA for the core business, equating to $134 per share”; “75% of the estimated FSD, which equates to $186 per share”; “75% of our estimated upside from Robotaxis, which equates to $158 per share”; and “50% of our estimated upside from Optimus, which equates to $29 per share.”

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