Steve Madden down 9% as Jefferies downgrades stock on wholesale headwinds

Investing.com -- Steve Madden shares were down 9% on Thursday. Jefferies has downgraded the stock to Underperform and cut its price target to $30, warning that ongoing pressures in the company’s wholesale business could weigh on revenue and margins for multiple quarters.

Roughly 70% of Steve Madden’s sales come from wholesale accounts, many of which, such as Walmart, Target, and TJX, are pushing back on recent price increases.

“We are downgrading SHOO to Underperform, as we see mounting and persistent wholesale pressures that are not adequately reflected in consensus,” analysts at Jefferies said.

Some retailers are bypassing wholesalers entirely, sourcing directly from factories or expanding private-label programs, limiting Steve Madden’s pricing power.

Jefferies analysts think that earnings momentum could remain muted until wholesale order patterns and price points stabilize.

Jefferies lowered its 2026 wholesale revenue estimate by about $250 million from a base of $1.8 billion and reduced its 2026 EPS forecast to $2 from roughly $2.40 consensus, citing slower order volumes and expected concessions on pricing.

The brokerage said that with limited direct-to-consumer exposure, Steve Madden has few levers to offset these pressures.

It applied a 14x multiple to its 2027 EPS estimate of $2.15 to arrive at the $30 target and noted that under a downside scenario, where order reductions intensify and additional price concessions are required, the stock could fall toward $20.

“We believe SHOO may ultimately need to roll back part of its pricing strategy to reaccelerate wholesale vols, which would pressure margins. With SHOO’s heavy reliance on wholesale and limited DTC exposure, the company has few levers to offset these pressures, suggesting several quarters of muted earnings momentum,” said analysts.

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