ROIC could be shifting from the US to Asia, UBS says

Investing.com -- Return on invested capital could be shifting away from the U.S. and toward Asia as the global memory-chip cycle tightens, according to UBS strategist Sunil Tirumalai.

He stated in a note to clients on Monday that “memory is emerging as a key bottleneck in AI supply chains,” with DRAM and NAND expected to remain undersupplied until 4Q27 and 1Q27, respectively.

As a result, Tirumalai believes the price surge is likely to lift profitability for Samsung and SK Hynix to unprecedented levels.

UBS estimates their free cash flow will make up “4%+ of global corporate FCF in 2027E, and ~14% of all of EM FCF,” adding that “for a couple of years the cashflow generated by these two stocks will surpass the combined cashflow of U.S. hyperscalers.”

He said that represents “a material shift of ROIC from the U.S. profit pool to this part of the world. We’re turning more positive.”

UBS upgraded Korea to Overweight, arguing that despite sharp gains in the market there is “still value on the table.”

Tirumalai noted that the next three years of free cash flow for Samsung and SK Hynix amount to “70–90% of their market cap,” and said their debt-free balance sheets reinforce the outlook.

He added that the bank’s Korea team is now “c40% above consensus on MSCI Korea 2027E EPS.” But he warned that the call depends on “sustained high AI capex” and that Korea remains one of the more exposed emerging-market regions to U.S. tariffs.

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