Potential implications from SpaceX IPO for Tesla?

Investing.com -- With SpaceX set to go public this week, Wolfe Research is examining what the listing could mean for Tesla investors, particularly as speculation around a potential merger between the two Elon Musk-led companies gains traction on Wall Street.

Wolfe Research analyst Emmanuel Rosner stated in a note that based on discussions with institutional investors, "the potential for an eventual SpaceX / Tesla merger has increasingly moved into the mainstream, with some now making it their primary thesis for owning the TSLA stock."

Rosner outlined three drivers behind the merger thesis. He noted that Musk is consolidating voting control, with a hypothetical all-stock deal giving him well above 50% voting rights in a combined entity.

In addition, the analyst pointed to a potential powerhouse in AI, with Tesla contributing real-world data sets and SpaceX building out compute capacity. Finally, Rosner highlighted access to a larger capital base.

However, Wolfe flagged significant hurdles, including the need to pay a large premium, possible opposition from other SpaceX shareholders, and regulatory complications stemming from Tesla's substantial China operations.

The firm said completion of a possible merger is "unlikely until mid-2027 (at the earliest)."

In the meantime, Wolfe said merger anticipation could provide downside support for Tesla shares, but warned the company needs to "deliver on robotaxi & Optimus proof points for the shares to find momentum."

Wolfe noted that while core business fundamentals appear to be improving, they represent only a small piece of Tesla's valuation.

The larger portion, the firm said, is tied to confidence in robotaxi, humanoids, and ancillary AI services, areas where "ramp curves are shallower than previously expected."

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