Piper Sandler flags top stock beneficiaries from new tax relief

Investing.com -- Piper Sandler says a surge in U.S. tax refunds early this year could meaningfully lift consumer spending, with several retailers and restaurants positioned to benefit from the windfall.

In a new report, analyst Peter Keith said recent changes under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act “could deliver significant tax relief to middle and upper-middle income households this tax refund season — with additional benefits throughout the year via lower withholdings.”

Piper Sandler, citing its PSC Macro Research team, estimates that Disposable Personal Income will see a “+1.5% lift in Q1 and a +1.0% lift in Q2” as higher refunds arrive mainly in March and April.

Keith added that the Act is expected to deliver “a net new ~$191B in individual income tax relief to taxpayers in 2026,” with roughly $91 billion appearing directly during refund season.

The firm highlighted that refund gains “will over-index to middle- and upper middle-income homeowners in particular, given the increase to the SALT deduction cap.”

A University of Chicago survey cited by Piper Sandler shows these households expect to save 50 percent to 60 percent of refunds, far higher than lower-income groups.

Against this backdrop, Piper Sandler screened for companies with strong exposure to higher-income consumers and discretionary spending.

It listed BBY, W and home-improvement names HD, LOW and FND among likely beneficiaries.

Other names include ONON, BIRK and ULTA in footwear and beauty, and restaurant chains CMG, CAVA and SBUX, alongside pet-food group FRPT.

Piper Sandler stated that these stocks have historically shown sensitivity to refund-driven spending patterns

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