Oppenheimer lifts Etsy on AI search, app engagement gains

Investing.com -- Oppenheimer lifted its rating for Etsy to Outperform from Perform in a note this week, setting a $90 price target based on gains from AI-powered search, product improvements and stronger app engagement.

Analyst Jason Helfstein said third-party data and a consumer survey support a more positive view. A regression of SimilarWeb website visits implies third-quarter non-app buyers were flat year over year, versus down 3% in the second quarter, the first positive quarter since around 2023, "suggesting high-end of GMS guidance is achievable," he wrote, referring to gross merchandise sales.

Oppenheimer’s survey of 2,500 U.S. consumers pointed to healthy demand, with 65% reportedly saying they were very or somewhat likely to buy an item and 88% going directly to Etsy's website or app rather than through Google.

Helfstein said the results suggest product improvements are working, giving Etsy "a strong competitive moat and less dependence on Google Search."

The analyst raised his 2026 gross merchandise sales forecast by 1%, to roughly the high end of the Street, and now sees 5% growth in 2027 and 2028, even assuming continued share loss in the online handmade market. He forecasts that market growing about 9% a year through 2028.

The $90 target is based on 12 times Oppenheimer's 2027 EBITDA estimate, a 10% discount to eBay despite similar growth. Helfstein noted Etsy trades at about 10 times 2027 EBITDA, versus eBay at 13 times.

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