Odds fall for US Supreme Court ruling on Trump tariff legality

Investing.com -- Odds that the US Supreme Court will rule in favor of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs have fallen to 27%, according to Polymarket, dropping 12% on Wednesday as the initial court hearing began.

During the session, Supreme Court justices, including Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Amy Coney Barrett, questioned Solicitor General D. John Sauer about his argument that a 1977 law grants Trump the authority to impose billions in monthly tariffs.

"The vehicle is imposition of taxes on Americans, and that has always been the core power of Congress," Roberts stated during the proceedings.

The questioning occurred early in what was expected to be a more than two-hour session, making it difficult to predict the final ruling. Justices may still pose challenging questions to the tariff challengers in the second half of arguments.

If the court rules against Trump, it could trigger more than $100 billion in refunds and remove a significant burden from US importers currently paying these tariffs. Such a decision would represent a major check on Trump’s assertion of presidential powers by the conservative-controlled Supreme Court.

A victory for Trump, however, could establish a precedent allowing presidents to take broad actions when declaring national emergencies.

Trump’s legal team argues the tariffs are authorized under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which provides presidents with tools to address national security, foreign policy, and economic emergencies. While the law doesn’t specifically mention tariffs, it does allow presidents to "regulate" the "importation" of property during crises.

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