Morgan Stanley identifies best gas stocks amid AI data center boom

Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley sees a major new demand tailwind emerging for U.S. natural gas as the rapid buildout of AI-driven data centers accelerates power needs across key regions.

Based on its AlphaWise geospatial analysis, the bank estimates AI data center development could drive about +4.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of incremental U.S. gas demand by 2030, with growth heavily concentrated in Appalachia and the PJM market.

The firm mapped 1,272 announced data center projects representing roughly 80 GW of incremental power demand to identify where gas consumption is most likely to rise.

While a theoretical upside case could imply 14–15 Bcf/d of additional demand if natural gas served the entire load, Morgan Stanley’s probability-weighted base case points to a more realistic +4.8 Bcf/d increase.

Morgan Stanley analysts said this incremental demand fits into a broader structural shift already underway, stressing the U.S. gas market is “on the cusp of a new cycle of demand growth,” supported by LNG exports and rising electricity consumption.

Geographically, demand is expected to cluster in PJM and Virginia, which together account for the majority of projected growth. This regional concentration underpins Morgan Stanley’s stock preferences across the natural gas value chain.

In upstream, the firm views EQT as best positioned, citing its "acreage position and long inventory life, midstream vertical integration, exposure to regional prices, and proactive strategy to capture this power demand growth." The bank maintains an Overweight rating and Top Pick status on the name.

Within midstream, analysts see TC Energy as a “top way to play grid-connected power solutions supporting AI and data center expansion,” pointing to the company’s pipeline proximity to new data center sites.

Williams is also well-liked, as the company is “establishing clear leadership in behind-the-meter opportunities” that hyperscalers increasingly require.

In utilities and power, Morgan Stanley sees producers benefiting as data center operators seek long-term supply agreements. Vistra ranks among the top beneficiaries given its generating capacity located near projected demand centers.

Other liked names across these segments include Enbridge, Kinder Morgan and Talen Energy.

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