Moderna shares could slump over 30% on negative CMV reading: Leerink

Investing.com -- Leerink analyst warned that Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) shares could fall more than 30% if interim results from its Phase 3 CMV vaccine trial, CMVictory gives negative readout.

In case of a negative readout, where data fails to show a statistically significant benefit, could drop Moderna’s stock below $30 as the company’s long-term revenue prospects would take a hit, potentially delaying its profitability timeline beyond the current 2028 estimate.

Whereas a positive interim result could trigger a relief rally, with shares potentially rising to the mid-$50 range, aided by short covering.

The CMV vaccine is a major focus for Moderna as it seeks to diversify its revenue beyond COVID-19 products, which have faced declining demand.

The company navigates concerns over COVID vaccine oversupply, falling prescriptions, and the appointment of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, which has raised uncertainties for vaccine manufacturers.

Moderna completed enrollment for the CMVictory trial in September 2023, with the final dose administered in February 2024. As of earlier this year, the company reported 50 confirmed cases out of the required 81 for the interim analysis.

Investors are now closely watching for updates on the trial as Moderna’s next earnings driver hinges on the success of its CMV program.

Shares of Moderna were 0.6% down at $44 in premarket trading.

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