KeyBanc bullish on Airbnb, sees hotels as second growth engine

Investing.com -- KeyBanc Capital Markets lifted its rating for Airbnb to Overweight from Sector Weight and set a $191 price target on the stock in a note Friday, based on 17 times its 2028 EBITDA estimate.

Analyst Sergio Segura said his thesis rests on three pillars, with increasingly durable core growth, hotels emerging as a credible second growth engine, and Airbnb's position as a beneficiary of AI.

"Core growth appears increasingly durable and product-led," Segura wrote. He added that the recent reacceleration reflects product improvements, wider market penetration and stronger brand engagement. First-time bookers grew at their fastest rate in four years.

“Hotels are currently a single-digit percentage of Nights but growing three times faster than Airbnb's homes segment,” said Segura.

He estimates they can add at least two percentage points to room night growth over the next several years. Management commentary and KeyBanc's consumer survey suggest hotel bookings are largely incremental rather than taking share from homes.

Segura also pushed back on fears that AI agents will squeeze travel marketplaces out of the booking process. He argued travel is a high-trust purchase where consumers value reliability and booking certainty alongside price, while Airbnb's inventory cannot be found elsewhere.

Shares trade below their three-year median valuation multiple and at a discount to traditional lodging peers, despite faster growth, which Segura said makes the risk-reward compelling.

Original Article

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