JP Morgan cuts Traeger stock rating on weak outlook, tariff risks

Investing.com -- JP Morgan downgraded Traeger Inc (NYSE: COOK) to Market Perform from Outperform, citing disappointing 2025 guidance and risks from new tariffs on Chinese imports, which account for about 50% of Traeger's sales.

Despite Q4 sales rising 3.2% and adjusted EBITDA of $18 million, exceeding estimates, Traeger’s 2025 outlook fell short. The company forecast flat sales growth at the midpoint of $595 million-$615 million, below FactSet’s $628 million consensus, and adjusted EBITDA of $75 million-$85 million, missing analysts' $91 million expectation.

JPMorgan warned that macroeconomic headwinds, including high interest rates and consumer spending caution, will pressure big-ticket discretionary purchases. Tariffs on Chinese imports, recently raised to 20%, pose an additional downside risk, as grill prices could rise.

The firm also noted that Traeger's heavy reliance on promotions in 2024 could create tougher comparisons in 2025. Meanwhile, CFO Dominic Blosil will step down at the end of Q1, adding further uncertainty.

While new product innovation, including the Woodridge grill series, and consumables expansion may support growth, JPMorgan moved to the sidelines, lowering its 12-month price target to $2.50 from $4.00.

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