Home Depot 'positioned for continued share gains' says analyst after meeting

Investing.com -- Following Home Depot’s Investor Day in New York, analysts at Truist wrote that the company remains “positioned for continued share gains,” although broader macro uncertainties mean the timing of an upcycle remains hard to call.

During the meeting on December 9, management reiterated 2025 guidance, with annual sales growth of about 3%, “slightly positive” comps and EPS around $14.50, aligning closely with Truist’s expectations.

For 2026, The Home Depot projected a flat home-improvement market, comps of flat to +2%, an adjusted EBIT margin of 12.8%–13.0%, and EPS growth between flat and +4%.

Truist adjusted its estimates accordingly, with comp growth now seen at 1.6% compared to the prior 2.0% forecast and 2026 EPS at ~$15.15.

However, Truist analyst Scot Ciccarelli remains confident that once the comp base inflects, a multi-year upcycle could follow.

Under a recovery scenario with roughly 4.5% comps and total sales growth near 5.5%, the firm believes Home Depot could see mid- to high-single-digit EPS gains. Truist said the company may enjoy “more earnings leverage than what the company has outlined.”

The firm reiterated a Buy rating, especially appealing for long-term investors, even as they trimmed the 12-month price target slightly to $375 from $379.

“We remain highly confident that home improvement trends will accelerate meaningfully, but calling the timing for the inflection has proven to be very difficult and more recent economic uncertainties have not helped matters (we slightly lowered our CY26 ests to reflect this),” wrote Ciccarelli. “However, we suspect that when comps do inflect, we could see a multi-year upcycle.”

Elsewhere, Bernstein analyst Zhihan Ma said the investor day presented a roadmap but there is “no macro rebound in sight yet.”

“Going into 2026, we expect the timing of a potential macro inflection point and progress in the Complex Pro strategy to remain key points of debate for HD,” stated Ma.

“In the near term, we continue to prefer LOW over HD given its cheaper valuation, greater cost savings potential, and the cyclicality of the business, which sets it up well for the eventual rebound in demand.”

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