Heineken to sell less beers in 2025 and spend more

Investing.com -- Heineken shares slipped 1.1% on Thursday after the Dutch brewer said it expects to sell less beer next year, extending its volume downgrade as economic pressures weigh on consumers.

At its capital markets day in Seville, the world’s second-largest brewer reaffirmed its “EverGreen 2030” strategy but stopped short of issuing stronger earnings targets, which has disappointed some investors.

Morgan Stanley said Heineken’s mid-term organic growth and margin goals are already reflected in consensus estimates, with foreign-exchange drag and sluggish trading still clouding sentiment.

Heineken plans to lift marketing spend to more than 10% of revenue from 9.8% in 2024 to support key brands and regain share in its 0.0% segment, which has lagged competitors.

The company also announced a new “Heineken 0.0 Ultimate” beer with zero calories and sugar, set for global rollout in 2026, aiming to revive growth in the moderation category.

Management said the recent slowdown in beer consumption is cyclical rather than structural, pledging to price products below inflation to restore affordability.

Heineken expects about 1% annual global volume growth, with emerging markets offsetting weaker demand in developed economies.

The company reaffirmed plans to deliver €400–500 million in annual savings through digital efficiencies and procurement gains, and set mid-term goals for capital intensity of 7–8% and cash conversion above 90%.

Morgan Stanley said the update has its confidence in Heineken’s long-term category positioning but failed to address investor concerns about weak near-term trading and currency headwinds.

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