ECB signals a summer pause after latest rate cut

Investing.com -- The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday but signalled that further easing is unlikely before the autumn.

According to ING, “comments from the ECB’s press conference suggest Board members are in no hurry to cut rates again at the July meeting – unless there is a new escalation of trade tensions.”

ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasised a cautious approach, suggesting that the central bank would “stick to a wait-and-see approach over the summer.”

ING noted the ECB sees the recent disinflation as “mainly transitory due to energy prices and the stronger euro.”

Still, ING believes “today’s rate cut [is not] the last one this year,” and expects another reduction in September.

The longer-term picture remains mixed. ING reported that the ECB maintains “a more optimistic longer-term picture for growth on the back of German fiscal stimulus and European intentions to step up defence spending.”

However, a cooling labour market and signs of disinflation “should provide enough room for at least one more rate cut after the summer.”

Wells Fargo echoed this view, stating: “We expect a pause from the ECB at its July meeting and a 25 bps rate cut by the ECB in September.”

The bank sees risks tilted toward “a more pronounced easing cycle,” but added there is “not yet… compelling enough evidence for the ECB to hasten or add to its rate cut cycle.”

Macquarie analysts were more sceptical, arguing that “further rate cuts may be hard to justify.”

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