Crown Holdings downgraded as rally and slower growth temper upside

Investing.com -- Crown Holdings was downgraded by Wolfe Research and JPMorgan, both citing the share price run and expectations for slower earnings growth that leave limited near-term upside. Shares have gained 28% in last one year.

Wolfe cut the stock to Peer Perform, saying much of its long-standing bullish thesis has already played out after more than two years of operational improvement and balance sheet repair.



The firm pointed to consistent gains in fundamentals, lower leverage, a more efficient asset base and a greater focus on share buybacks as drivers behind the stock’s rally.

With those factors now reflected in the share price, Wolfe said risk and reward appear more balanced. While it does not view valuation as stretched, the gap versus peers has narrowed, reducing the potential for further gains in the near term.

The firm also wants to reassess the outlook in the first half of 2026 as the company’s earnings guidance may prove conservative.

JPMorgan also downgraded the stock to Neutral, noting Crown shares have risen 34% over the past year, outpacing the broader market. The bank said earnings growth is likely to slow in 2026 after a recovery in recent years, with costs tied to capacity expansion and higher overhead expected to weigh on profits.

JPMorgan now expects earnings per share of about $8 in 2026, up modestly from roughly $7.80 in 2025, as new can capacity in Brazil and higher U.S. labor costs pressure margins in the Americas.

Europe remains a relative bright spot, with can volumes seen growing as much as 5%, while Asia Pacific profit could be lower due to regional disruptions. The company’s Transit packaging unit may see some improvement, though demand remains soft.

The bank raised its price target to $115 from $112, reflecting a higher valuation multiple across the materials sector, but said the current share price already reflects fair value given modest expected growth and free cash flow.

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