Could the S&P 500 post a fourth straight year of gains?

Investing.com -- The S&P 500 may be positioned for another positive year in 2026 despite mixed short-term signals, according to Canaccord Genuity.

The firm argued in a recent note that there is a “strong case for a 4th positive year,” pointing to its newly published 2026 Outlook.

Analysts wrote that “the waning weeks of 2025 gave an important gift to 2026 in the form of a strengthening economy.”

Canaccord expects growth to “accelerate modestly, inflation to remain under control, and continued rate cuts in the new year,” adding that “there is a good probability the S&P500 will be up solidly for a 4th consecutive year.”

On the macro front, the firm said Venezuela’s political upheaval could become an economic tailwind if it leads to “more oil supply” from the country’s “~300B barrel stockpile,” alongside what it described as a “modestly and slowly thawing housing market,” both serving as potential checks on inflation in 2026.

Earnings and economic forecasts also leave room for surprises. Canaccord noted that macro estimates “tend to be conservative heading into a new year,” with consensus expecting 2% real GDP growth and 2.8% CPI inflation.

Still, tactical indicators remain mixed. The firm highlighted that its faster-moving gauges sit in neutral territory, while the weekly stochastic and NAAIM Exposure Index “remained in overbought/high optimism zones.”

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