Could Trump open the door to Chinese auto OEMs?

Investing.com -- Chinese automakers could gain their first real foothold in the United States if President Donald Trump follows through on comments suggesting openness to allowing them to build factories domestically, according to Wolfe Research.

Wolfe analyst Emmanuel Rosner told investors in a note that Trump “indicated he is not against Chinese automotive manufacturers opening plants in the US if they employ Americans,” during a visit to Detroit and a speech to the Detroit Economic Club.

Rosner noted this “wouldn’t be completely unprecedented,” pointing to Geely’s South Carolina facility building Volvo-branded vehicles.

While Trump offered no additional detail, Wolfe Research said similar remarks by Ontario Premier Doug Ford also “suggest openness to Chinese OEMs expanding their footprint to North America.”

“It is too early to tell if Trump will follow through with letting Chinese OEMs produce in the US, but if he does, we would view it as a significant negative for the US auto industry,” wrote the analyst.

For now, the United States remains “the main large autos market shielded from Chinese competition,” thanks to high import tariffs and the absence of local Chinese manufacturing, Wolfe said.

By contrast, Western automakers have already “lost considerable share in China,” and Europe is seeing the same trend.

Wolfe Research highlighted Europe as the “preview” of what could happen. Chinese manufacturers have grown from “2.7% mkt share in 2023 to >5.5% in 2025,” helped by major cost advantages.

The firm estimated BYD’s China operating cost per vehicle at roughly $21,000, rising to about $32,000 after tariffs and logistics, still below the “$33–$35k” for many European automakers.

Chinese carmakers also plan to add around 1 million units of localized capacity in Europe, Wolfe said.

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