Cantor downgrades Polestar stock on weak delivery outlook

Investing.com -- Cantor Fitzgerald on Wednesday downgraded Polestar (NASDAQ: PSNY) to Underweight from Neutral after the electric vehicle (EV) maker cut its delivery outlook.

The move reflects “lower delivery expectations, additional pending capital needs, further tariff impact, recent share price appreciation, and unclear autonomy strategy," analyst Andres Sheppard said in a note.

Polestar recently disclosed it now expects only low double-digit volume growth in fiscal 2026 (FY26), down sharply from its prior target of 30%–35% compound annual retail sales growth between 2025 and 2027.

Sheppard views the revised outlook as a material reset. The analyst noted the new guidance “can result in a 16% cut to FY26 revenue, which we view as disappointing.” In response, Cantor reduced its FY26 delivery forecast to 66,720 vehicles from 80,720 previously, lowering projected FY26 revenue to about $3.7 billion from roughly $4.4 billion.

Funding remains another key concern. While Polestar has secured more than $1 billion in financing since December and reported roughly $995 million of liquidity as of the third quarter of 2025, Sheppard expects further capital raises.

He models a monthly cash burn of about $124 million and estimates the company will need to raise more than $6 billion through the first half of 2030.

Meanwhile, tariffs and geopolitics also remain an overhang given Polestar’s manufacturing footprint in China and South Korea, with only limited U.S. production. "We continue to expect Polestar will be materially impacted by tariffs and geopolitics," the analyst said.

Polestar reported third-quarter 2025 revenue of about $748 million, up 36% year over year, while gross margin was roughly negative 6.1%, below Cantor’s estimate, and adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $259 million.

Looking ahead, the company is targeting several product launches, including the Polestar 5 grand tourer expected to begin deliveries in summer 2026 and a redesigned successor to the Polestar 2 planned for the first half of 2027.

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