CPI and jobs data, not Jackson Hole, will determine the Fed's course

Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley said upcoming inflation and labour market data will be the decisive factors for U.S. monetary policy, not commentary from the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium.

“The weak payrolls data put us on alert,” said the bank in a note. “But payrolls can mislead when population growth is changing.”

Analysts pointed out that payroll figures “exaggerate labour market deterioration,” with other measures such as hours worked, labour incomes, hiring, layoffs, job openings and unemployment rates showing a market “still in balance.”

The slowdown in payrolls during the second quarter, largely due to downward revisions, initially raised fears of a weakening jobs market.

But Morgan Stanley argued that “labor compensation remains very strong” and that July’s rebound in hours worked suggests demand is “reaccelerating.”

The note highlighted comments from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who warned against overinterpreting monthly payroll data.

“Let’s be careful about overindexing on that monthly payroll,” he said, stressing that immigration trends and slower labour force growth have shifted the breakeven pace of job gains.

According to Morgan Stanley, payroll breakevens have fallen from 210,000 per month last year to 130,000 year to date, and are on track to drop to 70,000 by year-end.

While Fed Chair Jerome Powell may stress either slowing payrolls or resilient unemployment rates at Jackson Hole, Morgan Stanley said, “Ultimately, CPI and jobs data will determine the Fed’s course.”

The bank continues to expect the central bank to remain on hold in September, but described the decision as “a close call.”

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