Buy dips or sell strength in 2H 2026?: BCA Research answers

Investing.com -- BCA Research hosted a bull/bear debate on July 13, 2026, moderated by Chief Investment Strategist Marko Papic, pitting Peter Berezin and Arthur Budaghyan on the bearish side against Juan Correa and Noah Weisberger on the bullish side, with bulls ultimately winning the argument, though BCA Research cautioned that "victory may be short-lived."

The bear case, according to BCA Research, holds that the U.S. equity market "is in the midst of an earnings bubble," with margins less durable than they appear, valuations above trend, and hyperscaler free cash flow already rolling over.

The bull case counters that compute remains scarce, backlogs are growing, and hyperscalers still trade at their cheapest valuations in a decade.

BCA Research said history favors a bullish bias, noting that when earnings growth is positive, the S&P 500 rarely declines. While a decline in EPS would be a warning sign, the firm said "the evidence that such a scenario is looming is scant."

Still, BCA Research flagged a key risk, with over the long run, great new technologies "do not necessarily equate to highly profitable companies."

The firm said a correction is coming, though timing a market exit is difficult at best.

Ultimately, BCA Research said the capex trade "will eventually end, likely in a destructive way," but for now, economic and fundamental tailwinds will prevail. The firm added that multiple compression, rather than recession or an earnings collapse, remains "the bulls' chief worry."

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