BofA upgrades CF Industries on improved nitrogen market, risk/reward

Investing.com -- Bank of America upgraded CF Industries (NYSE: CF) to "Neutral" from "Underperform" given a more balanced risk/reward profile following the company's post-earnings sell-off and improving nitrogen market fundamentals.

The firm noted that U.S. nitrogen supplies have tightened, leading to higher pricing that offsets rising natural gas costs. CF's stock, down 9% year-to-date, is now seen as reasonably priced.

BofA also highlighted CF’s greenfield blue ammonia project, which has drawn strong interest from Mitsui and JERA. While the project’s higher capital expenditure estimates may have surprised investors, management's recent commentary was more constructive.

In case “at least one to agree to an equity position in this project in coming weeks with proportional offtake agreements,” it would derisk the project.

The bank maintained its price objective at $84, with higher 2025 EBITDA estimates offset by expectations of a softer supply-demand balance in the second half of the year.

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