BofA downgrades Applied Materials as mature-node weakness weighs on outlook

Investing.com -- Bank of America downgraded Applied Materials to Neutral from Buy and cut its price objective to $180 from $190, citing a weaker-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter outlook and growing exposure to sluggish chip equipment segments.

The brokerage said Applied’s heavy reliance on mature-node demand especially in China and softer spending from major customers such as Intel are weighing on visibility and could continue to hold back growth into 2025.

It cut its fiscal 2026 and 2027 adjusted earnings estimates by 9% and 5% respectively, though it maintained its valuation framework at 18 times 2026 earnings.

While Bank of America still views Applied as a high-quality supplier, it said the company is underperforming the wafer fab equipment (WFE) market and may be losing share to peers such as Lam Research and KLA.

It estimates Applied lost roughly 200 basis points of market share in 2024 due to slower sales in areas like etch and deposition.

Applied shares trade at a discount to Lam on 2026 earnings, and BofA said the stock could benefit if China licenses improve or Intel increases capital spending, but near-term momentum looks weak.

Applied now expects its Semiconductor Systems segment revenue to fall 1% in calendar 2025 and rise 6% in 2026, lagging BofA’s WFE growth forecast of 5% and 6% for those years.

The bank also warned of potential longer-term competition from Chinese equipment makers in areas where Applied has historically been strong, such as CMP and ion implantation.

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