Baird upgrades Rivian as 2026 R2 launch to drive demand

Investing.com -- Baird upgraded Rivian Automotive to Outperform, as launch of lower-priced R2 and new product cycle would have a knock-on effect for the stock as volumes ramp through the second half of the year.

Rivian plans to build the R2 at its Normal, Illinois facility, with pricing estimated near $45000. Baird said the model’s entry into a lower-priced segment should broaden Rivian’s customer base and support higher deliveries over time.

The firm also pointed to Rivian’s recent Autonomy and AI Day, where the company outlined its autonomous strategy and unveiled custom chips.

Baird said these moves should strengthen Rivian’s long-term competitiveness.

Baird said investor sentiment toward EV makers has been weighed down in 2025 by concerns around the potential removal of EV tax credits.

With those fears now largely behind the market, the brokerage said investors may be more willing to re-engage with Rivian as it approaches the R2 launch.

On deliveries, Baird said its 2026 estimates broadly align with consensus, assuming first R2 deliveries in late second quarter and a steady ramp in the second half.

It forecasts full-year 2026 deliveries of about 65300 vehicles, including roughly 15100 R2 units.

Baird also flagged fleet announcements as a potential catalyst through 2026, as Rivian seeks customers for its commercial vans beyond its existing relationship with Amazon.

Liquidity remains a key focus, the brokerage said, but noted Rivian ended the third quarter with $7.1 billion in cash and equivalents.

Baird added that additional funding sources include a $6.6 billion U.S. Department of Energy loan tied to the planned Georgia plant and a further $2.5 billion expected from the Volkswagen joint venture as milestones are met.

Baird raised its price target on Rivian to $25 from $14, citing the expected growth from the R2 launch and longer-term earnings potential.

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