Baird lowers Ryder to Neutral, warning consensus forecasts are too high

Investing.com -- Ryder System Inc (NYSE: R) shares slipped 2.3% in Tuesday trading after Baird downgraded the commercial fleet management provider, warning that elevated earnings expectations may prove difficult to meet against a challenging macroeconomic backdrop.

At the core of the downgrade is a widening gap between consensus financial forecasts and the realities of a capital-intensive leasing model. Baird revised its full-year 2027 earnings per share estimate to $16.02, falling well short of the $17.87 currently expected by Street analysts.

Sustained higher interest rates present a direct headwind for Ryder by raising capital costs and potentially slowing new lease activity, Moore noted. At the same time, elevated fuel prices threaten to dampen broader transport demand, creating additional drag across the company’s economically sensitive rental business.

Meanwhile, ongoing financial strain among smaller freight carriers risks delaying a recovery in used equipment values. That pressure could ultimately prolong the broader freight cycle downturn, limiting near-term valuation upside despite Ryder’s long-term strategic progress.

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