Abivax shares surge after report flags continued Eli Lilly takeover interest

Investing.com -- Shares in Abivax jumped sharply on Monday after a report said U.S. drugmaker Eli Lilly remains interested in acquiring the French biotech.

The stock soared more than 23% in Paris to 121.60 euros, after hitting an all-time high of 130 euros earlier in the session.

The jump comes after French publication La Lettre reported that Eli Lilly was prepared to pay €15 billion to buy Abivax, nearly double its current market capitalisation.

The report said no formal offer has yet been submitted to Abivax’s board, but that Eli Lilly is still in the race and is awaiting guidance from the French Finance Ministry on whether a potential deal would be subject to foreign investment controls.

While attending the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference in San Francisco, Abivax’s chief executive Marc de Garidel told Bloomberg News that big pharma could no longer overlook the company’s lead drug candidate, obefazimod, which he said may become “one of the most-used products in the next decade.”

The experimental oral drug is being developed to treat ulcerative colitis.

“We are concentrating on developing this drug, bring it to the market. That’s all that matters. The rumours, speculations, we have no control over those,’ Garidel told BiotechTV in a separate interview.

Kepler Cheuvreux analyst Justine Telliez said Abivax has emerged as “one of the most attractive late-stage M&A targets”in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) following positive phase III induction data in ulcerative colitis.

He said a potential takeover could reasonably clear in a €150–250 per share range, above Kepler’s €130 standalone target price, which is based on probability-weighted value from ulcerative colitis and Crohn’s disease and assumes no transaction.

In an acquisition, valuation would typically move above standalone levels as buyers apply a broader “control” lens, embedding a control premium and assigning incremental value to factors excluded from the base case, including execution synergies, lifecycle management and pipeline optionality, Telliez wrote.

Where a deal ultimately clears would depend on perceived “winner” status, the level of residual uncertainty at signing, mainly around durability, and the degree of competitive tension among credible bidders, he added.

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