We Are Already in a Recession - ECRI
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Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, thinks the U.S is already in recession. During an interview with Bloomberg Television today, he said his previous prediction that the U.S. would enter recession in the first or second quarter of 2012 was correct and that the recession has already begun.
"It is very rare that you know you're going into recession when you're going into recession. It often takes some big hit on top of the head. In the last recession, it took Lehman to wake people up. And the recession before, it took 9/11."
A recession is not a statistic, noted Achuthan. It is a process between production, employment, income, and sales.
"When you look at those four measures, they are rolling over," he said.
"Industrial production is off of its April high. Manufacturing and trade sales, much broader than retail sales, is off its December high. Real personal income growth, which does not always go negative during a recession, has been negative for several months."
In Achuthan's view, the data tells a clear story about the health of the U.S. economy, and they are consistent with what he would describe as a recession.
"It is very rare that you know you're going into recession when you're going into recession. It often takes some big hit on top of the head. In the last recession, it took Lehman to wake people up. And the recession before, it took 9/11."
A recession is not a statistic, noted Achuthan. It is a process between production, employment, income, and sales.
"When you look at those four measures, they are rolling over," he said.
"Industrial production is off of its April high. Manufacturing and trade sales, much broader than retail sales, is off its December high. Real personal income growth, which does not always go negative during a recession, has been negative for several months."
In Achuthan's view, the data tells a clear story about the health of the U.S. economy, and they are consistent with what he would describe as a recession.
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