WHO Warns That Swine Flu Pandemic Is Imminent

Late Wednesday, the world learned that the World Health Organization (WHO) raised the swine influenza pandemic alert level from phase 4 to phase 5. The scale goes up to phase 6, with phase 5 characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one region. The declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent. A phase 6 alert would indicate widespread human infection.

Earlier today, the U.S. CDC confirmed that there are 91 human cases of swine flu in 10 states and 1 death to an infant in Texas. New York has the most confirmed cases at 51 due to an outbreak at a Queens private school after the students returned from Mexico. Other states with confirmed cases include Arizona (1); California (14); Indiana (1); Kansas (2); Massachusetts (2); Michigan (2); Nevada (1); Ohio (1); Texas (16) (1 death).

Mexico is considered the epicenter of the virus, with as many as 159 deaths from the influenza.

The WHO warned that all countries should immediately activate their pandemic preparedness plans and remain on high alert for unusual outbreaks of influenza-like illness and severe pneumonia.

On a positive note, the WHO said the world is better prepared for an influenza pandemic now than at any time in history, due to measures undertaken because of the threat from the bird flu.

The escalation to phase 5 does not reflect the lethality of the strain, but the speed at which it is spreading.

The WHO said the biggest question, right now, is: how severe will the pandemic be, especially now at the start? They warn that it is possible that the full clinical spectrum of this disease goes from mild illness to severe disease. The WHO also notes that from past experience, influenza may cause mild disease in affluent countries, but more severe disease, with higher mortality, in developing countries.

So the question that remains unanswered is if this outbreak will be like the 1918 pandemic that killed 500,000 people in the U.S. and 20-50 million worldwide, or like the handful of other pandemics that followed that were relatively mild.

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