So Why is Everyone after TiVo?

February 18, 2005 1:20 PM EST
So why is everyone after TiVo Inc (Nasdaq: TIVO)? This morning, the company reported stellar results of 698,000 net subscriber additions during the fourth quarter and said their total subscriber base is now in excess of 3 million. What does the market do with the great news? They add a few dimes to the stock price this morning and then they take a couple back in the afternoon. The stock is currently $0.19 cents higher to $3.81 per share.

Most of the street is either neutral or negative on the stock. Here is how Bloomberg has it broken down: 5 Buys (27.78%), 10 Holds (55.6%) and 3 Sells (16.67%). In addition, this morning, Vintage Research downgraded the stock from 'hold' to 'sell' and set a $2.50/share year-end price target. OUCH!

Indeed there are some legitimate concerns about Tivo, including the firm�s entire existence, as cable and satellite companies add their own DVR features. But even with all the problems, is Tivo only worth $100 per subscriber? It doesn't seem justified. Tivo's brand is unmatched. If your recording something it's "I Tivo'd that" or �I'm going to Tivo that?"... It's not "I'm going to DVR that". The brand itself has value and I think a smart firm like Comcast (Nasdaq: CMCSA) or DirectTV (NYSE: DTV) would be well served by buying the company. And Tivo shareholders would be well served if the company sells, as it would stop the constant bleeding they�ve had to endure.

Also of note, there are rumors in the market the company may be close to signing a big shot to take over the CEO role.

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