RIM's (RIMM) Last Great Hope to Be Delayed Again - Analyst

October 9, 2012 11:21 AM EDT
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Those hoping to get their hands on Research In Motion's (NASDAQ: RIMM) BB10 early in the first quarter of 2013 may have to wait a little longer.

Jefferies analyst Peter Misek said a BB10 launch before March is unlikely. "Management has been silent as to the timing of the launch within CQ1 but we believe plans for a Jan launch have now been pushed back until March, which means BB10 will miss RIM's Feb Q," the analyst said.

The problems don't end there for RIMM.

Because replenishment rates are decreasing as channel partners are cautious on holding RIM inventory, it is going to be a tough November quarter for the company, the analyst notes. Misek is maintaining his below-consensus estimates of $2.5B/$(0.52) (St $2.7B/$(0.35) for the Nov Q and $2.5B/$(0.55) (St $2.8B/$(0.25) for the Feb Q.

On a sale or licensing deals before BB10, Misek said don't hold your breath. "We believe there is no imminent sale of RIMM and any licensing deals are likely well after the launch of BB10 in January," he said. "We think Samsung and some other Asian OEMs might be interested, but we think they see better terms and entry points months from now."

While a third ecosystem in the smartphone market will likely emerge, for RIM to fill this role it must convince Samsung, Huawei, and ZTE to license. RIM faces competition from Microsoft's Win 8 to fill this role, although conflicting reviews, less-than-stellar developer feedback, and a desire by Microsoft to make hardware directly make Win 8 unlikely to have better odds, Misek said.

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Research In Motion Ltd. click here. For more ratings news on Research In Motion Ltd. click here.

Shares of Research In Motion Ltd. are down 4.6 percent Tuesday to $7.86.


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