Q4 Preview: A Fee-Free Look at Expedia (EXPE) Earnings
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Expedia, Inc. (Nasdaq: EXPE) is higher ahead of the company's first quarter earnings report, expected out after the market closes today. Shares are up 1.2% this afternoon.
EXPE is expected to report EPS of $0.36 on revs of $802.31 million. Last quarter, the Bellevue, WA-based lodging company posted EPS of $0.66 on revs of $987.9 million, compared to the consensus EPS of $0.58 and revs of $942.44 million. Looking back one year, Expedia produced EPS of $0.30 on revs of $697.5 million in Q409, topping the consensus EPS of $0.28 with revs of $689.70 million.
Shares fell 9.2% through the quarter, to $25.09 at the end of December. The stock is up 2.7% since then, and finished 2010 about 2% better.
A simple valuation puts EXPE with a forward P/E 13x FY11 EPS estimates, compared to 22.1x for Orbitz Worldwide (NYSE: OWW) and 25.8x for priceline.com (Nasdaq: PCLN).
Data from Bloomberg has 11 analysts with a Buy on EXPE, 11 with a hold, and none suggesting to Sell. The analyst price target average is $31, with a high of $38 and low of $25. Shares have traded in a range of $29.85 - $18.30 over the last 52-weeks.
Summary
Deutsche Bank is looking for EXPE to report a better top-and-bottom-line than expected from analysts. DB is looking for revs of $800 million and EPS of $0.34. Rebounding consumer demand as well as travel advertising and underappreciated assets lead the charge.
DB notes that "Overall online travel trends remain healthy, with occupancy rates still below historic highs (at 58%) and ADR rates continue to trend higher. We are more cautious on margins given the TripAdvisor-Google disruption in the near-term, but adjusted our numbers accordingly." Gross booking are expected to be $6 billion, total transactions of 15.1 million, Hotel Room Nights of 18.8 million, and Air Tickets Sold of 9.6 million.
Looking forward, Deutsche thinks that investors will focus on OIBA guidance, which should be about +15% - 16% for FY11.
Deutsche has a Buy rating and $33 price target.
Benchmark is looking for revs of $785 million, with adjusted EPS of $0.34. They note an acceleration in U.S. travel spending through the quarter, with 12% year-over-year growth in November cooling to 9% in December.
Notably, "December capped a strong recovery year for the domestic hotel market, with occupancy increasing by over 5% and ADR’s up nearly 2% y/y, according to STR Global. For the full-year 2010, occupancy rose 5.7% y/y, while ADRs remained flat y/y as pricing has remained sticky during the nascent US economic recovery."
Benchmark has a Buy with $36 price target on the stock.
Expedia Inc.. is expected to release their Q410 earnings on Thursday, February 10, 2011, at approximately 4:00pm EST. Stay tuned to StreetInsider.com's EPS Insider section to see our analysis of the highly-anticipated quarterly results withi0 n seconds of their release.
EXPE is expected to report EPS of $0.36 on revs of $802.31 million. Last quarter, the Bellevue, WA-based lodging company posted EPS of $0.66 on revs of $987.9 million, compared to the consensus EPS of $0.58 and revs of $942.44 million. Looking back one year, Expedia produced EPS of $0.30 on revs of $697.5 million in Q409, topping the consensus EPS of $0.28 with revs of $689.70 million.
Shares fell 9.2% through the quarter, to $25.09 at the end of December. The stock is up 2.7% since then, and finished 2010 about 2% better.
A simple valuation puts EXPE with a forward P/E 13x FY11 EPS estimates, compared to 22.1x for Orbitz Worldwide (NYSE: OWW) and 25.8x for priceline.com (Nasdaq: PCLN).
Data from Bloomberg has 11 analysts with a Buy on EXPE, 11 with a hold, and none suggesting to Sell. The analyst price target average is $31, with a high of $38 and low of $25. Shares have traded in a range of $29.85 - $18.30 over the last 52-weeks.
Summary
Deutsche Bank is looking for EXPE to report a better top-and-bottom-line than expected from analysts. DB is looking for revs of $800 million and EPS of $0.34. Rebounding consumer demand as well as travel advertising and underappreciated assets lead the charge.
DB notes that "Overall online travel trends remain healthy, with occupancy rates still below historic highs (at 58%) and ADR rates continue to trend higher. We are more cautious on margins given the TripAdvisor-Google disruption in the near-term, but adjusted our numbers accordingly." Gross booking are expected to be $6 billion, total transactions of 15.1 million, Hotel Room Nights of 18.8 million, and Air Tickets Sold of 9.6 million.
Looking forward, Deutsche thinks that investors will focus on OIBA guidance, which should be about +15% - 16% for FY11.
Deutsche has a Buy rating and $33 price target.
Benchmark is looking for revs of $785 million, with adjusted EPS of $0.34. They note an acceleration in U.S. travel spending through the quarter, with 12% year-over-year growth in November cooling to 9% in December.
Notably, "December capped a strong recovery year for the domestic hotel market, with occupancy increasing by over 5% and ADR’s up nearly 2% y/y, according to STR Global. For the full-year 2010, occupancy rose 5.7% y/y, while ADRs remained flat y/y as pricing has remained sticky during the nascent US economic recovery."
Benchmark has a Buy with $36 price target on the stock.
Expedia Inc.. is expected to release their Q410 earnings on Thursday, February 10, 2011, at approximately 4:00pm EST. Stay tuned to StreetInsider.com's EPS Insider section to see our analysis of the highly-anticipated quarterly results withi0 n seconds of their release.
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